Jul 14, 2021

After trading mixed overnight, corn and soybeans surged during the mid-week trading day.  It was evident early after the 8:30am open that managed money was back in the game but no one really has a solid idea on why, it seems we were higher today because we wanted to be.  With cash corn well above $6 and cash beans flirting with either side of $14, we again have another opportunity to capture some benchmark pricing on any remaining old crop.  Southeastern South Dakota, Northwest Iowa, and Northeastern Nebraska areas were the beneficiaries of a rain event today with reports of over 1" total near Sioux Falls with rain still falling.  Weekly ethanol numbers were down this week with output off 26,000 bpd, down to 1.04 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks were down 15,000 barrels to 21.13 mln barrels.  We're still told the US corn and soybean crops are struggling and Brazil's corn crop isn't good but the elephant in the room is the lack of any real evidence backing up the claims.  The record U.S. corn yield was set in 2017 at 176.6 bu/acre.  On this same week in 2017, the U.S. corn condition was identical, reported at 65% good/excellent.  Breaking it down by state, corn in Indiana and Ohio is in much better condition this year compared to 2017 and Minnesota is much worse.  All others are relatively similar to 4 years ago.

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