Grain > Commentary > 7-13-2023

7/13/2023

Jul 13, 2023

7/13/2023
A solid recovery up and down the board today erased most of Wednesday's losses in corn and soybeans closed well above the Wednesday opening price.  The continued fall of the dollar index fueled the fund buying in grains today.  The USDA announced a sale this morning of 315,704 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Weekly net export sales were the largest for corn since March with 468k tonnes of old and 471k tonnes of new crop sales last week.  These figures were both above trade expectations.  Soybean sales were bland with 81k tonnes of old and 209k tonnes of new crop sold.  Using the revised USDA export targets in yesterday's WASDE report, corn sales pace improved to 54 million bushels behind versus 58 million bushels short last week.  Soybean sales pace falls short 67 million bushels versus 65 million bushels short last week.  We will need some big numbers in the final 7 weeks to hit the current USDA figures on the balance sheets and it is very unlikely we achieve those numbers.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.