7/13/2023

Jul 13, 2023


7/13/2023
A solid recovery up and down the board today erased most of Wednesday's losses in corn and soybeans closed well above the Wednesday opening price.  The continued fall of the dollar index fueled the fund buying in grains today.  The USDA announced a sale this morning of 315,704 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Mexico during the 2023/24 marketing year.  Weekly net export sales were the largest for corn since March with 468k tonnes of old and 471k tonnes of new crop sales last week.  These figures were both above trade expectations.  Soybean sales were bland with 81k tonnes of old and 209k tonnes of new crop sold.  Using the revised USDA export targets in yesterday's WASDE report, corn sales pace improved to 54 million bushels behind versus 58 million bushels short last week.  Soybean sales pace falls short 67 million bushels versus 65 million bushels short last week.  We will need some big numbers in the final 7 weeks to hit the current USDA figures on the balance sheets and it is very unlikely we achieve those numbers.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.