7/12/2023

Jul 12, 2023


7/12/2023
WASDE RECAP:  The USDA printed numbers that mostly followed trade expectations.  Corn yield was cut by 4 bu/ac from 181.5 to 177.5 but analysts were looking for 176.  Looking at the current forecasts, there is big potential here that this is the lowest yield number we will see for the 2023 crop.  The 22/23 corn ending stocks at 1.402 was close to the 1.420 avg guess which was down from 1.452 in June.  The USDA cut corn exports and ethanol use by a combined 150 million bushels.  Everything nets out to a 5 million bushel increase to the 2023/24 corn ending stocks.  On the soybean side, 2022/23 ending stocks increased by 25 million bushels with a bump in imports and a cut in exports.  The fresh acres number of 83.5 million acres gives a net change of -50 million bushels to the 2023/24 soybean ending stocks at 300 million bushels.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.