7/12/2023

Jul 12, 2023


7/12/2023
WASDE RECAP:  The USDA printed numbers that mostly followed trade expectations.  Corn yield was cut by 4 bu/ac from 181.5 to 177.5 but analysts were looking for 176.  Looking at the current forecasts, there is big potential here that this is the lowest yield number we will see for the 2023 crop.  The 22/23 corn ending stocks at 1.402 was close to the 1.420 avg guess which was down from 1.452 in June.  The USDA cut corn exports and ethanol use by a combined 150 million bushels.  Everything nets out to a 5 million bushel increase to the 2023/24 corn ending stocks.  On the soybean side, 2022/23 ending stocks increased by 25 million bushels with a bump in imports and a cut in exports.  The fresh acres number of 83.5 million acres gives a net change of -50 million bushels to the 2023/24 soybean ending stocks at 300 million bushels.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.