Grain > Commentary > 7-12-2023

7/12/2023

Jul 12, 2023

7/12/2023
WASDE RECAP:  The USDA printed numbers that mostly followed trade expectations.  Corn yield was cut by 4 bu/ac from 181.5 to 177.5 but analysts were looking for 176.  Looking at the current forecasts, there is big potential here that this is the lowest yield number we will see for the 2023 crop.  The 22/23 corn ending stocks at 1.402 was close to the 1.420 avg guess which was down from 1.452 in June.  The USDA cut corn exports and ethanol use by a combined 150 million bushels.  Everything nets out to a 5 million bushel increase to the 2023/24 corn ending stocks.  On the soybean side, 2022/23 ending stocks increased by 25 million bushels with a bump in imports and a cut in exports.  The fresh acres number of 83.5 million acres gives a net change of -50 million bushels to the 2023/24 soybean ending stocks at 300 million bushels.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.