7/12/2022

Jul 12, 2022


7/12/2022
Selling was the theme across the broad market space today and the USDA gave money no reason to come back in. Grains, crude oil, and other commodities were deep in the red today. Funds have put into motion an interesting strategy: looking to flip their position short while most of the world is convinced there will be a food shortage. With South America having a huge corn crop and likely a lot more soybeans than we were ever really told along with wheat crops around the globe far exceeding expected yields, the market is realizing that our issues are not crop production and our real issues are in the logistics of getting crops where they are needed. Also, the USDA reports are finally acknowledging that high U.S. prices have hurt demand.

July WASDE; Decrease in feed and residual for corn which netted a 25 million bushel increase in ending stocks. 2021/22 soybean crushings cut 10 million bushels with that change reflected ending stocks.
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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.