7/12/2022

Jul 12, 2022


7/12/2022
Selling was the theme across the broad market space today and the USDA gave money no reason to come back in. Grains, crude oil, and other commodities were deep in the red today. Funds have put into motion an interesting strategy: looking to flip their position short while most of the world is convinced there will be a food shortage. With South America having a huge corn crop and likely a lot more soybeans than we were ever really told along with wheat crops around the globe far exceeding expected yields, the market is realizing that our issues are not crop production and our real issues are in the logistics of getting crops where they are needed. Also, the USDA reports are finally acknowledging that high U.S. prices have hurt demand.

July WASDE; Decrease in feed and residual for corn which netted a 25 million bushel increase in ending stocks. 2021/22 soybean crushings cut 10 million bushels with that change reflected ending stocks.
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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.