7/11/2024

Jul 11, 2024


The markets looked promising overnight and showed some strength going into the morning break. Corn was holding steady in the range of 5-8 cents higher and soybeans were flexing a solid bounce of 7-11 cents higher. Soybeans had held off a couple early waves of selling but eventually caved, flipping red on the front end at midday. A late push brought us to finish just on the green side of unchanged. This price action in soybeans pulled wheat and corn off of their daily highs but we were able to close with some modest gains of 2-3 cents in corn and wheat finished a solid day with some double-digit gains. Weekly export sales were mid-range for old crop corn with 538k tonnes sold. Old crop beans were on the low side of expectations with 208k tonnes sold. Sales pace for corn improved 9 mln bu this week to a 74-million-bushel surplus. Soybean sales pace remained unchanged at a 50 million bushel short-fall. The July WASDE report will be out at 11 a.m. tomorrow. With the extreme oversold conditions and the record short position in funds, this report is getting a little more attention than it normally would. Trade will be focused mostly on any change to the U.S. crop yields and Brazil production.

Record net short position for corn…

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.