7/11/2024

Jul 11, 2024


The markets looked promising overnight and showed some strength going into the morning break. Corn was holding steady in the range of 5-8 cents higher and soybeans were flexing a solid bounce of 7-11 cents higher. Soybeans had held off a couple early waves of selling but eventually caved, flipping red on the front end at midday. A late push brought us to finish just on the green side of unchanged. This price action in soybeans pulled wheat and corn off of their daily highs but we were able to close with some modest gains of 2-3 cents in corn and wheat finished a solid day with some double-digit gains. Weekly export sales were mid-range for old crop corn with 538k tonnes sold. Old crop beans were on the low side of expectations with 208k tonnes sold. Sales pace for corn improved 9 mln bu this week to a 74-million-bushel surplus. Soybean sales pace remained unchanged at a 50 million bushel short-fall. The July WASDE report will be out at 11 a.m. tomorrow. With the extreme oversold conditions and the record short position in funds, this report is getting a little more attention than it normally would. Trade will be focused mostly on any change to the U.S. crop yields and Brazil production.

Record net short position for corn…

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.