7/11/2023

Jul 11, 2023


7/11/2023
Trade on Tuesday was rinse-and-repeat from Monday; corn steady from 1-2 higher and soybeans making a double-digit jump higher as we wait on some fresh fundamentals from the USDA tomorrow.  U.S. crop conditions improved better than what was expected for corn, coming in at 55% good/excellent (53% trade, 51% week ago, 64% year ago).  The soybean crop also improved to 51% good/excellent (52% trade, 50% week ago, 62% year ago).  A majority of the grain belt saw their g/e ratings increase, most notable was the state of Nebraska which saw a 13-point improvement in corn and a 12-point improvement in soybeans.  Reminder: tomorrow's report will use the new acres numbers from the June quarterly report.  Trade is expecting the USDA to lower corn and soybean yields.  The July edition of the WASDE is typically one that is a bit of a snooze fest but there's always the potential for a surprise when the USDA is involved.

 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.