Grain > Commentary > 7-11-2023

7/11/2023

Jul 11, 2023

7/11/2023
Trade on Tuesday was rinse-and-repeat from Monday; corn steady from 1-2 higher and soybeans making a double-digit jump higher as we wait on some fresh fundamentals from the USDA tomorrow.  U.S. crop conditions improved better than what was expected for corn, coming in at 55% good/excellent (53% trade, 51% week ago, 64% year ago).  The soybean crop also improved to 51% good/excellent (52% trade, 50% week ago, 62% year ago).  A majority of the grain belt saw their g/e ratings increase, most notable was the state of Nebraska which saw a 13-point improvement in corn and a 12-point improvement in soybeans.  Reminder: tomorrow's report will use the new acres numbers from the June quarterly report.  Trade is expecting the USDA to lower corn and soybean yields.  The July edition of the WASDE is typically one that is a bit of a snooze fest but there's always the potential for a surprise when the USDA is involved.

 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.