Grain > Commentary > 7-11-2023

7/11/2023

Jul 11, 2023

7/11/2023
Trade on Tuesday was rinse-and-repeat from Monday; corn steady from 1-2 higher and soybeans making a double-digit jump higher as we wait on some fresh fundamentals from the USDA tomorrow.  U.S. crop conditions improved better than what was expected for corn, coming in at 55% good/excellent (53% trade, 51% week ago, 64% year ago).  The soybean crop also improved to 51% good/excellent (52% trade, 50% week ago, 62% year ago).  A majority of the grain belt saw their g/e ratings increase, most notable was the state of Nebraska which saw a 13-point improvement in corn and a 12-point improvement in soybeans.  Reminder: tomorrow's report will use the new acres numbers from the June quarterly report.  Trade is expecting the USDA to lower corn and soybean yields.  The July edition of the WASDE is typically one that is a bit of a snooze fest but there's always the potential for a surprise when the USDA is involved.

 

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.