7/11/2023

Jul 11, 2023


7/11/2023
Trade on Tuesday was rinse-and-repeat from Monday; corn steady from 1-2 higher and soybeans making a double-digit jump higher as we wait on some fresh fundamentals from the USDA tomorrow.  U.S. crop conditions improved better than what was expected for corn, coming in at 55% good/excellent (53% trade, 51% week ago, 64% year ago).  The soybean crop also improved to 51% good/excellent (52% trade, 50% week ago, 62% year ago).  A majority of the grain belt saw their g/e ratings increase, most notable was the state of Nebraska which saw a 13-point improvement in corn and a 12-point improvement in soybeans.  Reminder: tomorrow's report will use the new acres numbers from the June quarterly report.  Trade is expecting the USDA to lower corn and soybean yields.  The July edition of the WASDE is typically one that is a bit of a snooze fest but there's always the potential for a surprise when the USDA is involved.

 

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.