Grain > Commentary > 7-10-2023

7/10/2023

Jul 10, 2023

7/10/2023
Corn was steady in the 4-5 cent higher range and soybeans trended higher throughout the session finishing with gains of 18-27 cents on Monday.  Corn has been mostly sideways throughout the past 5 days while soybeans have traded around a 75-cent range.  Weekly export inspections were poor for corn with 341k tonnes shipped last week.  Soybeans were landed mid-range of expectations at 238k tonnes.  Corn shipments are now 78 million bushels behind the pace needed to hit the USDA export target, up from 60 million bushels last week.  Soybean export shipment pace is now 23 million bushels ahead of the USDA target, down from 28 million bushels last week.  For the WASDE report on Wednesday, analysts’ average estimates show trade expecting the USDA to cut corn yield by about 5 bu/ac and soybean yield by 0.6 bu/ac.  They also have the 2022/23 corn ending stocks decreasing by 30 million bushels which seems out of line considering how sluggish demand has been for the past 6 months.  USDA will need to sharpen their demand numbers for corn exports and ethanol before the end of the marketing year.

rainfall.png

Read More News

11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.