Grain > Commentary > 7-1-2024

7/1/2024

Jul 01, 2024

Wheat led the way to open up the holiday week with gains ranging from 12-18 cents across the different classes.  Unable to finish higher on Friday after a friendly report, soybeans reversed off of fresh lows this morning, gaining traction throughout the session to finish 7-12 cents higher.  Corn struggled most of the session to hold near unchanged but pulled some bids together in the final hour to finish mostly higher with the Sep and Dec 24 contracts fractionally lower.  Weekly export inspections were with within their expected ranges but volumes are beginning to fall which should be no surprise considering the point of the marketing year we are in.  Corn inspections totaled 820k tonnes and soybean shipments came in at 303k tonnes.  The seasonal pace for soybeans remains unchanged, maintaining a 30-million-bushel surplus.  Corn shipment pace fell backwards from a 28-million-bushel surplus to a 19-million-bushel surplus.  The weekly crop conditions report later today is expected to lower the ratings on the corn and soybeans and updated weather forecasts are favoring hot and dry weather for July.  We need these to materialize to help establish a foothold in the market.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.