7/1/2024

Jul 01, 2024


Wheat led the way to open up the holiday week with gains ranging from 12-18 cents across the different classes.  Unable to finish higher on Friday after a friendly report, soybeans reversed off of fresh lows this morning, gaining traction throughout the session to finish 7-12 cents higher.  Corn struggled most of the session to hold near unchanged but pulled some bids together in the final hour to finish mostly higher with the Sep and Dec 24 contracts fractionally lower.  Weekly export inspections were with within their expected ranges but volumes are beginning to fall which should be no surprise considering the point of the marketing year we are in.  Corn inspections totaled 820k tonnes and soybean shipments came in at 303k tonnes.  The seasonal pace for soybeans remains unchanged, maintaining a 30-million-bushel surplus.  Corn shipment pace fell backwards from a 28-million-bushel surplus to a 19-million-bushel surplus.  The weekly crop conditions report later today is expected to lower the ratings on the corn and soybeans and updated weather forecasts are favoring hot and dry weather for July.  We need these to materialize to help establish a foothold in the market.

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.