7/1/2024

Jul 01, 2024


Wheat led the way to open up the holiday week with gains ranging from 12-18 cents across the different classes.  Unable to finish higher on Friday after a friendly report, soybeans reversed off of fresh lows this morning, gaining traction throughout the session to finish 7-12 cents higher.  Corn struggled most of the session to hold near unchanged but pulled some bids together in the final hour to finish mostly higher with the Sep and Dec 24 contracts fractionally lower.  Weekly export inspections were with within their expected ranges but volumes are beginning to fall which should be no surprise considering the point of the marketing year we are in.  Corn inspections totaled 820k tonnes and soybean shipments came in at 303k tonnes.  The seasonal pace for soybeans remains unchanged, maintaining a 30-million-bushel surplus.  Corn shipment pace fell backwards from a 28-million-bushel surplus to a 19-million-bushel surplus.  The weekly crop conditions report later today is expected to lower the ratings on the corn and soybeans and updated weather forecasts are favoring hot and dry weather for July.  We need these to materialize to help establish a foothold in the market.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.