7/1/2024

Jul 01, 2024


Wheat led the way to open up the holiday week with gains ranging from 12-18 cents across the different classes.  Unable to finish higher on Friday after a friendly report, soybeans reversed off of fresh lows this morning, gaining traction throughout the session to finish 7-12 cents higher.  Corn struggled most of the session to hold near unchanged but pulled some bids together in the final hour to finish mostly higher with the Sep and Dec 24 contracts fractionally lower.  Weekly export inspections were with within their expected ranges but volumes are beginning to fall which should be no surprise considering the point of the marketing year we are in.  Corn inspections totaled 820k tonnes and soybean shipments came in at 303k tonnes.  The seasonal pace for soybeans remains unchanged, maintaining a 30-million-bushel surplus.  Corn shipment pace fell backwards from a 28-million-bushel surplus to a 19-million-bushel surplus.  The weekly crop conditions report later today is expected to lower the ratings on the corn and soybeans and updated weather forecasts are favoring hot and dry weather for July.  We need these to materialize to help establish a foothold in the market.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.