Grain > Commentary > 7-1-2024

7/1/2024

Jul 01, 2024

Wheat led the way to open up the holiday week with gains ranging from 12-18 cents across the different classes.  Unable to finish higher on Friday after a friendly report, soybeans reversed off of fresh lows this morning, gaining traction throughout the session to finish 7-12 cents higher.  Corn struggled most of the session to hold near unchanged but pulled some bids together in the final hour to finish mostly higher with the Sep and Dec 24 contracts fractionally lower.  Weekly export inspections were with within their expected ranges but volumes are beginning to fall which should be no surprise considering the point of the marketing year we are in.  Corn inspections totaled 820k tonnes and soybean shipments came in at 303k tonnes.  The seasonal pace for soybeans remains unchanged, maintaining a 30-million-bushel surplus.  Corn shipment pace fell backwards from a 28-million-bushel surplus to a 19-million-bushel surplus.  The weekly crop conditions report later today is expected to lower the ratings on the corn and soybeans and updated weather forecasts are favoring hot and dry weather for July.  We need these to materialize to help establish a foothold in the market.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.