7/1/2022

Jul 01, 2022


7/1/2022
There was a brief attempt to trade in the green overnight but corn and soybeans gave way to weakness early on. That weakness turned into some harsh liquidation in soybeans that featured some 60 cent lower trade on the day. The follow-through selling after yesterday's acres report came out bullish for soybeans was definitely a surprise. Corn struggled to get out of its own way. Any attempt to get back within a nickel of unchanged was quickly beaten away. Wheat trade also saw another round of heavy losses and is now trading at levels last seen prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was the third consecutive weekly lower close for spring wheat which has sacrificed around $2.50/bu during that period of time. We are fairly deep into oversold territory in corn, soybeans, and wheat now. I am expecting some corrective buying to come in next week. The theme for June was largely "risk-off" across the broader markets. There were no reports or export sales today. We are only about 10 days from a fresh set of fundamentals in the July WASDE report.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.