7/1/2022

Jul 01, 2022


7/1/2022
There was a brief attempt to trade in the green overnight but corn and soybeans gave way to weakness early on. That weakness turned into some harsh liquidation in soybeans that featured some 60 cent lower trade on the day. The follow-through selling after yesterday's acres report came out bullish for soybeans was definitely a surprise. Corn struggled to get out of its own way. Any attempt to get back within a nickel of unchanged was quickly beaten away. Wheat trade also saw another round of heavy losses and is now trading at levels last seen prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was the third consecutive weekly lower close for spring wheat which has sacrificed around $2.50/bu during that period of time. We are fairly deep into oversold territory in corn, soybeans, and wheat now. I am expecting some corrective buying to come in next week. The theme for June was largely "risk-off" across the broader markets. There were no reports or export sales today. We are only about 10 days from a fresh set of fundamentals in the July WASDE report.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.