7/1/2022

Jul 01, 2022


7/1/2022
There was a brief attempt to trade in the green overnight but corn and soybeans gave way to weakness early on. That weakness turned into some harsh liquidation in soybeans that featured some 60 cent lower trade on the day. The follow-through selling after yesterday's acres report came out bullish for soybeans was definitely a surprise. Corn struggled to get out of its own way. Any attempt to get back within a nickel of unchanged was quickly beaten away. Wheat trade also saw another round of heavy losses and is now trading at levels last seen prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This was the third consecutive weekly lower close for spring wheat which has sacrificed around $2.50/bu during that period of time. We are fairly deep into oversold territory in corn, soybeans, and wheat now. I am expecting some corrective buying to come in next week. The theme for June was largely "risk-off" across the broader markets. There were no reports or export sales today. We are only about 10 days from a fresh set of fundamentals in the July WASDE report.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.