7/1/2021

Corn and soybean trade was as volatile as ever all through the overnight and day sessions, with new crop corn trading 5 higher and new crop beans 25 lower at around 8pm last night.  We saw around a 30 cent range on corn trade and cash beans were anywhere from 25 lower to 25 higher today, only to finish fractionally lower.  The USDA stunned trade yesterday with acres numbers.  Most were not surprised to soybean acres unchanged since there was virtually no evidence telling us they had really increased.  The general consensus amongst the analysts is that there is still a large chunk of corn acres (1-2 million) still out there that were not reflected in yesterday's report.  Even with the huge underlying support of hot and dry weather ahead for a western cornbelt thats already thirsty, it seems strange to me that we found adding approximately 200 million bushels of corn to next year's ending stocks bullish.  Weather, and weather alone, is what will keep this market towards the upper end of its historic ranges.   Weekly export sales were minimal this week for old crop and may have helped put a stop to any run the bulls were going to make today.  Old crop corn sales at 15k tonnes, old crop beans at 93k tonnes, and new crop bean sales at 1.67 million tonnes were all as expected.  There was only 68k tonnes of new crop corn sales last week, well below the bottom estimate of 150k tonnes.  Tomorrow will likely be quiet heading into an extended trade weekend.