6/9/2021

The markets were in the red overnight and pushed the downside early in the day session but rallied strong off of their lows going into the final hour of the day.  New crop corn traded 16 lower and finished unchanged on the day while new crop beans traded as much as 30 lower and fought back to close down 9 on the day.  Tomorrow is WASDE report day and the focus will mostly be on 2021 US and Brazil corn crop production.  Analysts have a wide range of estimates on the size of the Brazil crop but the consensus is that last month's USDA number of 102.0 mln tonnes is too large.  Offering some additional fundamentals tomorrow will be Brazil's CONAB who will also be releasing their updated production estimates.  Compared to the May WASDE report, trade is also estimating a 55 million bushel cut in the old crop corn carryout and a 2 million bushel increase to the old crop soybean ending stocks with new crop carryouts adjusted to reflect old crop numbers.  The only wild card tomorrow may be a new crop yield adjustment but, historically, it’s awful early for the USDA to make that kind of change.  Weekly ethanol numbers showed production up 33,000 bpd to 1.07 mln bpd and stocks increased 372k bbls to 19.96 mln bbls total.  Rain continues to be moved around in the forecast along with chance percentages constantly changed.  Today's weather curveball was the potential for tropical storms having the ability to push moisture into the upper mid-west.