Grain > Commentary > 6-8-2023

6/8/2023

Jun 08, 2023

The time has come locally that all the corn processors have plunged to the September futures and take some risk off the table by getting out of the way of the July futures.  In doing so most of them took some of the spread with them, so while +75 the Sept might look good on paper, it was not favorable for the cash price.  The July/Sept spread traded out to 87.25 cents this morning before finishing back near 81 cents on the day.  That spread will stay volatile, so those you of with July basis contracts better be paying attention.  IF people get covered for their July futures needs that spread could implode and do so rather quickly.  I would be pricing your basis contracts sooner than later.  I have said it many times before, but I will preach it again. Invereses never have a good ending, so hanging on to old crop corn is risky and will be painful at some point as old crop and new crop prices come together.  

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.