6/8/2023

Jun 08, 2023


The time has come locally that all the corn processors have plunged to the September futures and take some risk off the table by getting out of the way of the July futures.  In doing so most of them took some of the spread with them, so while +75 the Sept might look good on paper, it was not favorable for the cash price.  The July/Sept spread traded out to 87.25 cents this morning before finishing back near 81 cents on the day.  That spread will stay volatile, so those you of with July basis contracts better be paying attention.  IF people get covered for their July futures needs that spread could implode and do so rather quickly.  I would be pricing your basis contracts sooner than later.  I have said it many times before, but I will preach it again. Invereses never have a good ending, so hanging on to old crop corn is risky and will be painful at some point as old crop and new crop prices come together.  

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.