6/8/2023

Jun 08, 2023


The time has come locally that all the corn processors have plunged to the September futures and take some risk off the table by getting out of the way of the July futures.  In doing so most of them took some of the spread with them, so while +75 the Sept might look good on paper, it was not favorable for the cash price.  The July/Sept spread traded out to 87.25 cents this morning before finishing back near 81 cents on the day.  That spread will stay volatile, so those you of with July basis contracts better be paying attention.  IF people get covered for their July futures needs that spread could implode and do so rather quickly.  I would be pricing your basis contracts sooner than later.  I have said it many times before, but I will preach it again. Invereses never have a good ending, so hanging on to old crop corn is risky and will be painful at some point as old crop and new crop prices come together.  

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.