6/8/2021

A 22-cent range in July corn today as market volatility shows no sign of slowing down.  The markets started off stronger and held their gains for most of the overnight with the weekly crop ratings seeing a 4-point cut in the good/excellent corn, to 72%, and the initial soybean crop rating coming in at 67% good/excellent, below the estimated 70% g/e.  Daily highs were set early after 8:30 open, the market then slowly retreated through the remainder of the session as the estimated 1-4" rainfall in North Dakota yesterday was found to be accurate and updated weather models anticipated better chances of widespread moisture across the corn belt.  Brazil has seen some relief from recent rains but, overall, remains very dry, with most private analysts estimating their total corn production around 90 million tonnes vs the USDA's estimate of 102 mmt.  Funds have been rolling out their long positions resulting in the deferred contract months closing the spread to the front months with December corn gaining 19 cents on the July contract and November beans gaining 24 cents in the first two days of trade this week.  One would like to expect trade to be more reserved leading up to the report release at 11am on Thursday but it's not likely with money flow and big daily price limits.