6/7/2024

Jun 07, 2024


Big snap back correction in the red after Thursday's big gains across the grain complex after the bulls had nothing to challenge the 50- and 100- day moving averages in corn or soybeans. It was a quick sell-off over the past week of trade and we were due for a correctional bounce but this type of volatility (either direction) can create an unhealthy market. We don't think yesterday's move was the last gasp in the market, there's a big enough variety of dynamics to provide a little more lift, yet. There is a lot to weigh out between planted acres, prevent plant acres, South American conditions, U.S. crop conditions, and forecasted demand but to provide a clear opinion on the market, today's prices on the board are most likely better than what we will see this fall. New crop sales have been slow to build volume and export bids are nothing impressive at the moment. Our revised old crop soybean target (1200 Jul futures) hit yesterday and during last night's session before we fell sharply lower. Other targets remain unchanged.

7-day rainfall totals.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.