6/7/2024

Jun 07, 2024


Big snap back correction in the red after Thursday's big gains across the grain complex after the bulls had nothing to challenge the 50- and 100- day moving averages in corn or soybeans. It was a quick sell-off over the past week of trade and we were due for a correctional bounce but this type of volatility (either direction) can create an unhealthy market. We don't think yesterday's move was the last gasp in the market, there's a big enough variety of dynamics to provide a little more lift, yet. There is a lot to weigh out between planted acres, prevent plant acres, South American conditions, U.S. crop conditions, and forecasted demand but to provide a clear opinion on the market, today's prices on the board are most likely better than what we will see this fall. New crop sales have been slow to build volume and export bids are nothing impressive at the moment. Our revised old crop soybean target (1200 Jul futures) hit yesterday and during last night's session before we fell sharply lower. Other targets remain unchanged.

7-day rainfall totals.

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Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.