6/7/2022

Jun 07, 2022


6/7/2022
Movements were mirrored in corn and soybeans overnight with corn trading steadily lower and soybeans steadily higher.  Buying interest came alive around the 7:30 hour sending corn and soybeans both sharply higher despite a better-than-expected crop planting progress and condition report for corn.  Report highlights:  corn: 94% planted (93% trade, 86% week ago, 98% year ago, 92% avg), 78% emerged (61% week ago, 89% year ago, 81% avg), 73% good/excellent (68% trade, 72% year ago); soybeans: 78% planted (80% trade, 66% week ago, 89% year ago, 79% avg), 56% emerged (39% week ago, 74% year ago, 59% average).  Today's price action was just another reminder that the fund/spec money is firmly in control of this market despite any effect fundamentals should have on our futures price levels.  Rumors were swirling today that China had come in to make some purchases on last week's big price break.  We will get some fresh fundamentals Friday with the June WASDE report but history shows this report is typically uneventful for the market.  Trade will likely be content to sit and wait on the grain stocks and acres reports at the end of the month. 

The November 22 soybean contract is starting to put together a bit of bullish look on the weekly continuous chart while continuing to trade around levels not seen since harvest of 2012. Oddly enough, a breakout either direction would be likely the same week as our grain stocks and acres report at the end of the month.
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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.