6/7/2022

Jun 07, 2022


6/7/2022
Movements were mirrored in corn and soybeans overnight with corn trading steadily lower and soybeans steadily higher.  Buying interest came alive around the 7:30 hour sending corn and soybeans both sharply higher despite a better-than-expected crop planting progress and condition report for corn.  Report highlights:  corn: 94% planted (93% trade, 86% week ago, 98% year ago, 92% avg), 78% emerged (61% week ago, 89% year ago, 81% avg), 73% good/excellent (68% trade, 72% year ago); soybeans: 78% planted (80% trade, 66% week ago, 89% year ago, 79% avg), 56% emerged (39% week ago, 74% year ago, 59% average).  Today's price action was just another reminder that the fund/spec money is firmly in control of this market despite any effect fundamentals should have on our futures price levels.  Rumors were swirling today that China had come in to make some purchases on last week's big price break.  We will get some fresh fundamentals Friday with the June WASDE report but history shows this report is typically uneventful for the market.  Trade will likely be content to sit and wait on the grain stocks and acres reports at the end of the month. 

The November 22 soybean contract is starting to put together a bit of bullish look on the weekly continuous chart while continuing to trade around levels not seen since harvest of 2012. Oddly enough, a breakout either direction would be likely the same week as our grain stocks and acres report at the end of the month.
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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.