6/7/2021

Volatility, weather market, more volatility; wash, rinse, repeat.  Markets opened higher Sunday night, citing record heat and dryness in the western corn belt, putting huge gaps on the charts for both old and new crop.  Enthusiasm faded throughout the night and a huge sell-off on the 8:30 open sent values back down to earth with new crop corn months being the only gaps remaining unfilled.  It took the higher volume of the day session for the market to realize the weather story only affects new crop and today's close reflects that.  Weekly export inspections were within estimates but on the low end of expectations for corn, putting the twist on the dagger in the grain bulls for the day.  The USDA reported 1.4mln tonnes of corn, 237k tonnes of soybeans, and 419k tonnes of wheat inspected for export for last week.  We will get our initial soybean condition ratings this afternoon with trade expecting a 70% good/excellent rating.  Analysts are also looking for a 2-point reduction in the good/excellent category from corn, from 76% down to 74%.  Weather continues to maintain a very bullish undertone to the market, especially for soybeans, but remember that it will only take two big rain events over the next 6 weeks, along with a few follow-up showers, and the big market bull run will be put to bed.