6/6/2023

Jun 06, 2023


Corn and soybeans began overnight trade immediately higher, triggered by the USDA putting out some lower-than-expected crop ratings.  The U.S. corn crop is currently rated at 64% good/excellent, trade was looking for a 67% rating (69% last week, 73% year ago).  Probably the most notable drop in conditions was across the I-states with Illinois -19% g/e, Indiana -10% g/e, and Iowa -5%.  The initial rating for the soybean crop came in at 62% good/excellent with trade expecting a 65% rating.  Corn and soybeans did flip back and forth between higher and lower a couple times throughout the session before finding solid footing in 3-5 cent higher trade shortly after the mid-day point.  Some strong spread action with July corn finishing the day up 10 cents.  The USDA announced the sale of 165,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Spain during the 2022/23 marketing year.  Some are guessing that this could be a result of Brazil's large lineup due to shipping delays.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.