6/6/2023

Jun 06, 2023


Corn and soybeans began overnight trade immediately higher, triggered by the USDA putting out some lower-than-expected crop ratings.  The U.S. corn crop is currently rated at 64% good/excellent, trade was looking for a 67% rating (69% last week, 73% year ago).  Probably the most notable drop in conditions was across the I-states with Illinois -19% g/e, Indiana -10% g/e, and Iowa -5%.  The initial rating for the soybean crop came in at 62% good/excellent with trade expecting a 65% rating.  Corn and soybeans did flip back and forth between higher and lower a couple times throughout the session before finding solid footing in 3-5 cent higher trade shortly after the mid-day point.  Some strong spread action with July corn finishing the day up 10 cents.  The USDA announced the sale of 165,000 tonnes of soybeans for delivery to Spain during the 2022/23 marketing year.  Some are guessing that this could be a result of Brazil's large lineup due to shipping delays.

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.