6/6/2022

Jun 06, 2022


6/6/2022
Trade was all about headlines today.  Corn picked up double-digits out to July 2023 and soybeans finished 1-7 higher after a day of mixed trade.  Wheat was sharply higher from the start last night, carrying corn and soybeans with it during the overnight session after it was reported that Russia had executed a targeted strike on a major Ukrainian grain export terminal.  Soybeans had cooled off by sunrise but corn continued to trade strong through the day.  Weekly export inspections were on the high end of estimates for corn at 1.435 million tonnes inspected last week.  Soybeans were a miss at 350k tonnes inspected compared to the 400-600k tonne range of estimates.  The current corn shipment pace exceeds the pace necessary to meet the USDA target by 98 million bushels, compared to 99 million bushels last week.  Soybean shipments to date fall short of the pace needed to meet the USDA target by 27 million bushels versus 26 million bushels last week.  The USDA is expected to release the first condition ratings for corn this afternoon alongside the planting progress.  Trade averaged a 68% good/excellent rating on corn and 93% planting completed.  Soybeans are expected to be 80% planted.  Current weather forecasts are extremely favorable to help planting and crop development and will likely keep some pressure on the markets now.
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.