6/5/2024

Jun 05, 2024


Demand is routine and any threat to this year's crops currently perceived as minimal keeps us in a grind lower.  We did see some 5 higher corn and 10 higher soybeans trade for a brief while after the 8:30 re-open.  Corn is back down near 3-month lows meaning our "late planting" rally is officially priced out of the market but doesn't mean we can't make a run at something better than today's prices in the near future.  The farmer has been severely disengaged since mid-May and basis has reacted by firming.  We have some potential head and shoulders patterns on the charts we can use if trade can find somewhere close to bounce from.  We've basically erased May's trade from the charts in the first week of June.  New sell targets (these have been revised lower):  Fill cash corn at 460 July futures to close out on old crop sales (previously 477'0), new crop corn at $4.30 or Dec HTA's at 480'0 futures (previously 502'0). Fill cash soybeans at 1200 futures to close out old crop, new crop soybeans at $11.00 cash or 1188 futures.

Potential head and shoulders pattern we are looking for to give us some to sell cash grain against. Gaps are likely to remain unfilled on the charts.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.