Grain > Commentary > 6-5-2024

6/5/2024

Jun 05, 2024

Demand is routine and any threat to this year's crops currently perceived as minimal keeps us in a grind lower.  We did see some 5 higher corn and 10 higher soybeans trade for a brief while after the 8:30 re-open.  Corn is back down near 3-month lows meaning our "late planting" rally is officially priced out of the market but doesn't mean we can't make a run at something better than today's prices in the near future.  The farmer has been severely disengaged since mid-May and basis has reacted by firming.  We have some potential head and shoulders patterns on the charts we can use if trade can find somewhere close to bounce from.  We've basically erased May's trade from the charts in the first week of June.  New sell targets (these have been revised lower):  Fill cash corn at 460 July futures to close out on old crop sales (previously 477'0), new crop corn at $4.30 or Dec HTA's at 480'0 futures (previously 502'0). Fill cash soybeans at 1200 futures to close out old crop, new crop soybeans at $11.00 cash or 1188 futures.

Potential head and shoulders pattern we are looking for to give us some to sell cash grain against. Gaps are likely to remain unfilled on the charts.

Read More News

9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
8/15/2025
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.