Grain > Commentary > 6-5-2023

6/5/2023

Jun 05, 2023

It is safe to say that we have fully submersed ourselves into a weather market!  Following Friday's largely bullish reversals and higher trade Sunday night, corn and soybeans flipped to the red shortly after the 8:30am open.  These funds and algorithms are trading updated weather forecasts by the hour!  Just like we mentioned a few times over these past couple weeks, these rallies can happen fast with larger moves than what is expected.  These rallies can also be done just as quickly, leaving some feeling like they missed out.  Using sell orders going forward is key to maintaining a strong average and capitalizing on higher trade when it’s there.  Weekly export inspections for corn and soybeans both came within their expected ranges with 1.181 mln tonnes of corn and 214k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week.  For the year, corn shipment pace shrinks its deficit from 92 million to 80 million bushels behind the USDA target.  Soybean shipment pace falls back by 5 million bushels to 42 million bushels ahead of the USDA target.  Trade expects the USDA to lower crop ratings in this week's update which could lend some support and help stabilize trade.

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.