Grain > Commentary > 6-5-2023

6/5/2023

Jun 05, 2023

It is safe to say that we have fully submersed ourselves into a weather market!  Following Friday's largely bullish reversals and higher trade Sunday night, corn and soybeans flipped to the red shortly after the 8:30am open.  These funds and algorithms are trading updated weather forecasts by the hour!  Just like we mentioned a few times over these past couple weeks, these rallies can happen fast with larger moves than what is expected.  These rallies can also be done just as quickly, leaving some feeling like they missed out.  Using sell orders going forward is key to maintaining a strong average and capitalizing on higher trade when it’s there.  Weekly export inspections for corn and soybeans both came within their expected ranges with 1.181 mln tonnes of corn and 214k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week.  For the year, corn shipment pace shrinks its deficit from 92 million to 80 million bushels behind the USDA target.  Soybean shipment pace falls back by 5 million bushels to 42 million bushels ahead of the USDA target.  Trade expects the USDA to lower crop ratings in this week's update which could lend some support and help stabilize trade.

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8/12/2025
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
5/12/2025
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
3/31/2025
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.