Grain > Commentary > 6-5-2023

6/5/2023

Jun 05, 2023

It is safe to say that we have fully submersed ourselves into a weather market!  Following Friday's largely bullish reversals and higher trade Sunday night, corn and soybeans flipped to the red shortly after the 8:30am open.  These funds and algorithms are trading updated weather forecasts by the hour!  Just like we mentioned a few times over these past couple weeks, these rallies can happen fast with larger moves than what is expected.  These rallies can also be done just as quickly, leaving some feeling like they missed out.  Using sell orders going forward is key to maintaining a strong average and capitalizing on higher trade when it’s there.  Weekly export inspections for corn and soybeans both came within their expected ranges with 1.181 mln tonnes of corn and 214k tonnes of soybeans shipped last week.  For the year, corn shipment pace shrinks its deficit from 92 million to 80 million bushels behind the USDA target.  Soybean shipment pace falls back by 5 million bushels to 42 million bushels ahead of the USDA target.  Trade expects the USDA to lower crop ratings in this week's update which could lend some support and help stabilize trade.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.