6/4/2024

Jun 04, 2024


The path of least resistance continues to prevail with corn down nearly 25 cents and soybeans losing around 70 cents over the past six sessions.  The first installment of crop conditions for the 2024 U.S. corn crop didn't give trade any reason to take the market higher.  The good/excellent rating for the crop as a whole debuted at 75%, with the crop coming in well above last year's ratings for this week.  The most notable improvements were Illinois with a 22-point increase and Nebraska with a 17-point increase in ratings compared to last year.  Weather patterns and models are expecting the current wet trend to turn dry going into the second half of June and carry on into July.  This should encourage trade to buy leading into the planted acres report at the end of the month as long as our weekly crop conditions reports support it.  We still want to be sold out of old crop and over half sold on new crop going into this quarterly report at the end of the month.  Over the past few years, we've learned that prolonged dryness is not necessarily bullish.  Timely rains make a better crop than consistent rains!

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.