6/4/2021

Jun 04, 2021


6/4/2021
A strong finish to end the week with new crop corn and soybeans looking to set up a possible run at the current contract highs.  Soybeans were the price leader today, closing 33 higher on the day and 53 higher for the week, with the trade focus continuing to be weather and now reports of farmers in North Dakota simply parking their planters and trying to decide if they should burn the fuel and plant for crop insurance.  Corn was the beneficiary of spillover support from the soybeans and higher than expected weekly net export sales with 531k tonnes of old crop corn sold (400k top estimated).  The July corn contract finishes 26 higher from the previous week's close.  Soybean sales were within estimates with 18k tonnes sold.  Argentina corn harvest is currently estimated at 34% complete and is yielding better than expected.  Makes a person wonder if the Brazil corn crop is really that bad?  Much of the US corn growing area needs a good drink but with modern genetics, corn can thrive while lacking moisture.  Seasonally, our December contract high is set sometime around mid-June and steadily declines into expiration.  We are also approaching the time to be sold out of old crop, don't fall victim to the market inverse and make sure you have everything priced to be delivered against the July futures. 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.