6/4/2021

Jun 04, 2021


6/4/2021
A strong finish to end the week with new crop corn and soybeans looking to set up a possible run at the current contract highs.  Soybeans were the price leader today, closing 33 higher on the day and 53 higher for the week, with the trade focus continuing to be weather and now reports of farmers in North Dakota simply parking their planters and trying to decide if they should burn the fuel and plant for crop insurance.  Corn was the beneficiary of spillover support from the soybeans and higher than expected weekly net export sales with 531k tonnes of old crop corn sold (400k top estimated).  The July corn contract finishes 26 higher from the previous week's close.  Soybean sales were within estimates with 18k tonnes sold.  Argentina corn harvest is currently estimated at 34% complete and is yielding better than expected.  Makes a person wonder if the Brazil corn crop is really that bad?  Much of the US corn growing area needs a good drink but with modern genetics, corn can thrive while lacking moisture.  Seasonally, our December contract high is set sometime around mid-June and steadily declines into expiration.  We are also approaching the time to be sold out of old crop, don't fall victim to the market inverse and make sure you have everything priced to be delivered against the July futures. 

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.