6/4/2021

Jun 04, 2021


6/4/2021
A strong finish to end the week with new crop corn and soybeans looking to set up a possible run at the current contract highs.  Soybeans were the price leader today, closing 33 higher on the day and 53 higher for the week, with the trade focus continuing to be weather and now reports of farmers in North Dakota simply parking their planters and trying to decide if they should burn the fuel and plant for crop insurance.  Corn was the beneficiary of spillover support from the soybeans and higher than expected weekly net export sales with 531k tonnes of old crop corn sold (400k top estimated).  The July corn contract finishes 26 higher from the previous week's close.  Soybean sales were within estimates with 18k tonnes sold.  Argentina corn harvest is currently estimated at 34% complete and is yielding better than expected.  Makes a person wonder if the Brazil corn crop is really that bad?  Much of the US corn growing area needs a good drink but with modern genetics, corn can thrive while lacking moisture.  Seasonally, our December contract high is set sometime around mid-June and steadily declines into expiration.  We are also approaching the time to be sold out of old crop, don't fall victim to the market inverse and make sure you have everything priced to be delivered against the July futures. 

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.