6/4/2021

Jun 04, 2021


6/4/2021
A strong finish to end the week with new crop corn and soybeans looking to set up a possible run at the current contract highs.  Soybeans were the price leader today, closing 33 higher on the day and 53 higher for the week, with the trade focus continuing to be weather and now reports of farmers in North Dakota simply parking their planters and trying to decide if they should burn the fuel and plant for crop insurance.  Corn was the beneficiary of spillover support from the soybeans and higher than expected weekly net export sales with 531k tonnes of old crop corn sold (400k top estimated).  The July corn contract finishes 26 higher from the previous week's close.  Soybean sales were within estimates with 18k tonnes sold.  Argentina corn harvest is currently estimated at 34% complete and is yielding better than expected.  Makes a person wonder if the Brazil corn crop is really that bad?  Much of the US corn growing area needs a good drink but with modern genetics, corn can thrive while lacking moisture.  Seasonally, our December contract high is set sometime around mid-June and steadily declines into expiration.  We are also approaching the time to be sold out of old crop, don't fall victim to the market inverse and make sure you have everything priced to be delivered against the July futures. 

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.