6/30/2023

Jun 30, 2023


6/30/2023
Report day had a massive surprise in order on planted acreage.  Corn acres were pegged at 94.096 Million vs the March estimate of 91.996 Million.  The average guess for this report was at 91.853 with a range of guesses from 91.0 - 93.0.  So we were well higher than the range of guesses even.  Corn stocks were pegged at 4.106 billion vs an average guess of 4.255 billion.  Corn finished the day down 34 cents on the higher acres number.  The bigger surprise though was in the bean acres.  The pegged planted bean acres at 83.505 Million vs the March estimate of 87.505.  4 Million acres of less bean planted!  WOW!  The average fuess for this report was 87.673 Million with a range of guesses from 88.5 - 87.0.  This was a shock to the market as it finished up 77 cents on the day.  Old crop bean stocks were 796 million vs an average guess of 812 million.  Beans are only 35 cents away from last weeks highs.  Bean oil finished the day locked limit higher on the news, so we will have expanded limits on Monday's trade in the soybean complex.  Observed precip in the I states over the next few days will be important as we get through the holiday weekend.  Have a good 4th of July Weekend!  

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.