6/30/2023

Jun 30, 2023


6/30/2023
Report day had a massive surprise in order on planted acreage.  Corn acres were pegged at 94.096 Million vs the March estimate of 91.996 Million.  The average guess for this report was at 91.853 with a range of guesses from 91.0 - 93.0.  So we were well higher than the range of guesses even.  Corn stocks were pegged at 4.106 billion vs an average guess of 4.255 billion.  Corn finished the day down 34 cents on the higher acres number.  The bigger surprise though was in the bean acres.  The pegged planted bean acres at 83.505 Million vs the March estimate of 87.505.  4 Million acres of less bean planted!  WOW!  The average fuess for this report was 87.673 Million with a range of guesses from 88.5 - 87.0.  This was a shock to the market as it finished up 77 cents on the day.  Old crop bean stocks were 796 million vs an average guess of 812 million.  Beans are only 35 cents away from last weeks highs.  Bean oil finished the day locked limit higher on the news, so we will have expanded limits on Monday's trade in the soybean complex.  Observed precip in the I states over the next few days will be important as we get through the holiday weekend.  Have a good 4th of July Weekend!  

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.