6/30/2023

Jun 30, 2023


6/30/2023
Report day had a massive surprise in order on planted acreage.  Corn acres were pegged at 94.096 Million vs the March estimate of 91.996 Million.  The average guess for this report was at 91.853 with a range of guesses from 91.0 - 93.0.  So we were well higher than the range of guesses even.  Corn stocks were pegged at 4.106 billion vs an average guess of 4.255 billion.  Corn finished the day down 34 cents on the higher acres number.  The bigger surprise though was in the bean acres.  The pegged planted bean acres at 83.505 Million vs the March estimate of 87.505.  4 Million acres of less bean planted!  WOW!  The average fuess for this report was 87.673 Million with a range of guesses from 88.5 - 87.0.  This was a shock to the market as it finished up 77 cents on the day.  Old crop bean stocks were 796 million vs an average guess of 812 million.  Beans are only 35 cents away from last weeks highs.  Bean oil finished the day locked limit higher on the news, so we will have expanded limits on Monday's trade in the soybean complex.  Observed precip in the I states over the next few days will be important as we get through the holiday weekend.  Have a good 4th of July Weekend!  

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.