6/3/2021

Jun 03, 2021


6/3/2021
The market found some strength overnight, with corn 10 cents and soybeans 27 cents higher at one point, but was sold-off immediately at the 8:30 open this morning and couldn't recover.  On modest volume and declining open interest, trading ranges were fairly large, as well, with a 32-cent spread in July corn and 46 cent window in July soybeans.  Fundamentals remain unchanged and our markets remain subject to money flow in and out.  Basis slips as we continue on towards the new crop delivery period as end users continue to gain coverage.  The rejuvenation in the market over the past week has given growers another opportunity to reward themselves with seldom seen prices and it’s probably best to take a historically good cash price over trying to pick highs.  New crop for 2022 should be given a hard look, as well.  We are one week out from our June WASDE report but trade hasn't given it much attention as most eyes are on next week's weather and the USDA acres numbers due out at the end of the month.  Spring wheat futures took a pause from their large run over the past week, finishing the day down 5 but still 95 cents higher from last Thursday. There wasn't much for news today except for the weekly ethanol report.  Production was up 23k bpd and stocks were up 608k bbls from the week prior.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.