6/28/2024

Those hoping the USDA quarterly stocks and acres reports would turn the tides of the market were disappointed.  Trade had expected the slight increase of 300k acres in corn plantings but the USDA shocked the market with a 1.5 mln acre increase.  One thing that stood out on the corn acres the most to me was that 500k of these added acres were in Minnesota and Iowa.  Corn snapped lower at the report release with July and Sep futures trading a 3 handle before bouncing back to finish 8 cents above the lows.  The report was actually friendly for new crop soybeans.  Analysts were expecting a slight increase in soybean acres compared to the March report but were met with a 400k acre decrease.  Soybeans reacted positively, trading as much as 19 higher on old crop contracts and 21 higher on new crop contracts.  Quarterly stocks came in above expectations for corn and soybeans with 4.993 bln bu of corn (4.873 expected) and 970 mln bu of soybeans (962 expected).  What to watch over the next 4 weeks:  What the USDA uses for yields in the July WASDE report and crop conditions and how many acres are truly affected by the heavy rains in Iowa and Minnesota where the USDA added generous portions of the new acres.