6/28/2023

Jun 28, 2023


6/28/2023
Another day of hard liquidation as rain and extended weather forecasts continue to pressure the markets.  It is probably safe to assume that funds have now flipped themselves from long to short.  We had a good rally that provided opportunity at profitable levels for the 2023 crop and think our customers did a great job making cash new crop sales and placing hedges.  In total, we handled slightly over one million bushels of 2023/24 crop during the 4-day rally.  What became evident with basis, regardless of delivery period, is that trade was more focused on supply and had almost completely forgotten about demand.  The USDA did announce the sale of 170.7k tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico this morning with 21k tonnes to be delivered in 2022/23 and 149k delivered in 2023/24.  This was the first flash sale of corn since mid-May.  Weekly ethanol data showed production unchanged at 1.05 million barrels/day and stocks increasing by 175,000 barrels to 22.98 mln bbls.  With just two months remaining in the marketing year, corn use for ethanol trails the pace to meet the USDA number by 47 million bushels.  With the sharp sell-off in futures this week, we now have room on the board for a friendly reaction to Friday's reports.

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.