Grain > Commentary > 6-28-2023

6/28/2023

Jun 28, 2023

6/28/2023
Another day of hard liquidation as rain and extended weather forecasts continue to pressure the markets.  It is probably safe to assume that funds have now flipped themselves from long to short.  We had a good rally that provided opportunity at profitable levels for the 2023 crop and think our customers did a great job making cash new crop sales and placing hedges.  In total, we handled slightly over one million bushels of 2023/24 crop during the 4-day rally.  What became evident with basis, regardless of delivery period, is that trade was more focused on supply and had almost completely forgotten about demand.  The USDA did announce the sale of 170.7k tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico this morning with 21k tonnes to be delivered in 2022/23 and 149k delivered in 2023/24.  This was the first flash sale of corn since mid-May.  Weekly ethanol data showed production unchanged at 1.05 million barrels/day and stocks increasing by 175,000 barrels to 22.98 mln bbls.  With just two months remaining in the marketing year, corn use for ethanol trails the pace to meet the USDA number by 47 million bushels.  With the sharp sell-off in futures this week, we now have room on the board for a friendly reaction to Friday's reports.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
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9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.