6/28/2023

Jun 28, 2023


6/28/2023
Another day of hard liquidation as rain and extended weather forecasts continue to pressure the markets.  It is probably safe to assume that funds have now flipped themselves from long to short.  We had a good rally that provided opportunity at profitable levels for the 2023 crop and think our customers did a great job making cash new crop sales and placing hedges.  In total, we handled slightly over one million bushels of 2023/24 crop during the 4-day rally.  What became evident with basis, regardless of delivery period, is that trade was more focused on supply and had almost completely forgotten about demand.  The USDA did announce the sale of 170.7k tonnes of corn for delivery to Mexico this morning with 21k tonnes to be delivered in 2022/23 and 149k delivered in 2023/24.  This was the first flash sale of corn since mid-May.  Weekly ethanol data showed production unchanged at 1.05 million barrels/day and stocks increasing by 175,000 barrels to 22.98 mln bbls.  With just two months remaining in the marketing year, corn use for ethanol trails the pace to meet the USDA number by 47 million bushels.  With the sharp sell-off in futures this week, we now have room on the board for a friendly reaction to Friday's reports.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.