6/27/2024
Jun 27, 2024
CORN IS NOW PRICED OFF OF THE SEPTEMBER FUTURES.
The relentless move downward continues even after another look at some higher trade overnight as managed money and spec funds keep the pressure on. We're in a true falling knife type scenario and it appears no one wants to be the first to try and catch it. We did have a new crop soybean sale announcement this morning for 120,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown during the 2024/25 marketing year. Export sales came in at 542k tonnes of corn and 282k tonnes of soybeans last week. Corn sales currently exceed their pace needed to meet the USDA target by 63 million bushels. Soybean sales pace is short of their target by 49 million bushels. Tomorrow's report is a big one and also falls in line with month end and quarter end for funds. Looking back in history, we have not traded lower coming out of this report when funds are short corn. After migrating back close to neutral positioning a month ago, funds once again have a large net short position again. The swing in soybean position has been similar but the market direction following this report is historically mixed and fund positioning does not give us much of a clue on soybean futures will react to this report.
The relentless move downward continues even after another look at some higher trade overnight as managed money and spec funds keep the pressure on. We're in a true falling knife type scenario and it appears no one wants to be the first to try and catch it. We did have a new crop soybean sale announcement this morning for 120,000 tonnes for delivery to unknown during the 2024/25 marketing year. Export sales came in at 542k tonnes of corn and 282k tonnes of soybeans last week. Corn sales currently exceed their pace needed to meet the USDA target by 63 million bushels. Soybean sales pace is short of their target by 49 million bushels. Tomorrow's report is a big one and also falls in line with month end and quarter end for funds. Looking back in history, we have not traded lower coming out of this report when funds are short corn. After migrating back close to neutral positioning a month ago, funds once again have a large net short position again. The swing in soybean position has been similar but the market direction following this report is historically mixed and fund positioning does not give us much of a clue on soybean futures will react to this report.