6/26/2024

Jun 26, 2024


Wednesday was a rinse-and-repeat with another day in the red.  Trade was steady overnight, hanging around unchanged, and then gave us a bit of a head fake this morning.  It looked like we had found some footing with beans up 12 and corn up 5 shortly after the 8:30 re-opening but those levels just could not hold.  As a result, corn set fresh lows for the calendar year and soybeans held juts above.  Friday's report is likely to bring some big volatility with corn averaging over a 28-cent move and soybeans over a 43-cent move.  Analysts do not expect much change in acres but do see a decent increase in corn, soybean, and wheat stocks year-over-year.  Weekly ethanol showed a decrease in production of 14,000 barrels/day to 1.043 mln bpd.  Stocks were off 200k barrels from the previous week, reported at 23.4 mln.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.