Grain > Commentary > 6-26-2024

6/26/2024

Jun 26, 2024

Wednesday was a rinse-and-repeat with another day in the red.  Trade was steady overnight, hanging around unchanged, and then gave us a bit of a head fake this morning.  It looked like we had found some footing with beans up 12 and corn up 5 shortly after the 8:30 re-opening but those levels just could not hold.  As a result, corn set fresh lows for the calendar year and soybeans held juts above.  Friday's report is likely to bring some big volatility with corn averaging over a 28-cent move and soybeans over a 43-cent move.  Analysts do not expect much change in acres but do see a decent increase in corn, soybean, and wheat stocks year-over-year.  Weekly ethanol showed a decrease in production of 14,000 barrels/day to 1.043 mln bpd.  Stocks were off 200k barrels from the previous week, reported at 23.4 mln.

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7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.