Grain > Commentary > 6-26-2024

6/26/2024

Jun 26, 2024

Wednesday was a rinse-and-repeat with another day in the red.  Trade was steady overnight, hanging around unchanged, and then gave us a bit of a head fake this morning.  It looked like we had found some footing with beans up 12 and corn up 5 shortly after the 8:30 re-opening but those levels just could not hold.  As a result, corn set fresh lows for the calendar year and soybeans held juts above.  Friday's report is likely to bring some big volatility with corn averaging over a 28-cent move and soybeans over a 43-cent move.  Analysts do not expect much change in acres but do see a decent increase in corn, soybean, and wheat stocks year-over-year.  Weekly ethanol showed a decrease in production of 14,000 barrels/day to 1.043 mln bpd.  Stocks were off 200k barrels from the previous week, reported at 23.4 mln.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.