Grain > Commentary > 6-25-2021

6/25/2021

Jun 25, 2021

6/25/2021
More rains in Iowa and Illinois means more long liquidation heading into the weekend.  Markets showed some strength at the start of overnight trade, with corn trading around a nickel higher and beans about 15 higher at one point.  We did have an 8am sale announcement this morning but it wasn't the one trade was looking for.  USDA announced a sale of 122,000 tonnes of soybean meal to Mexico split between the 2021/22 and 2022/23 marketing years.  Still more rumors today of possible new crop bean cargoes sold to China despite no confirmation this morning on yesterday's rumors.  We may have to wait for next week's export sales report to see these sales.  Full trade estimates and averages for next acres planted report were released late yesterday.  Corn acres ranged from 92.0-95.8 million, with a 93.8-million-acre average.  Soybean acres are also estimated to increase, with estimates ranging from 87.9-90.4 million acres and a 90.4-million-acre average.  USDA gave us 91.1 million acres of corn and 87.6 million acres of soybeans in the planting intentions report back on March 31.  For what it’s worth, my own estimation is 94 million acres of corn and 88.5 million acres of soybeans.  Looks like they're trying to give us a little more rain on Sunday, hopefully they're right!

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.