6/24/2022

Jun 24, 2022


6/24/2022
A nice recovery into the weekend after trade became quickly oversold earlier in the week.  Conditions overall remain favorable for crop development but some extra heat has made its way into the extended forecast outlooks which helped support buying today.  Leading up to next Thursday’s reports, I would expect the objective here is to get our futures mid-range of our most recent significant highs and lows on the charts (somewhere around the 700'0 level on September and December corn, near 1600'0 on August beans and 1480'0 on the November chart).  Weekly export sales were better than expected for old crop corn with 672k tonnes sold.  Old crop beans sales posted 29k tonnes of net sales.  This was a marketing year low for old crop beans and we are at a point in the marketing year where some net cancellations of soybeans on any given week will not be a surprise.  New crop sales were both within trade expectations with 358k tonnes of corn and 265k tonnes soybeans sold last week.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.