6/24/2022

Jun 24, 2022


6/24/2022
A nice recovery into the weekend after trade became quickly oversold earlier in the week.  Conditions overall remain favorable for crop development but some extra heat has made its way into the extended forecast outlooks which helped support buying today.  Leading up to next Thursday’s reports, I would expect the objective here is to get our futures mid-range of our most recent significant highs and lows on the charts (somewhere around the 700'0 level on September and December corn, near 1600'0 on August beans and 1480'0 on the November chart).  Weekly export sales were better than expected for old crop corn with 672k tonnes sold.  Old crop beans sales posted 29k tonnes of net sales.  This was a marketing year low for old crop beans and we are at a point in the marketing year where some net cancellations of soybeans on any given week will not be a surprise.  New crop sales were both within trade expectations with 358k tonnes of corn and 265k tonnes soybeans sold last week.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.