6/24/2022

Jun 24, 2022


6/24/2022
A nice recovery into the weekend after trade became quickly oversold earlier in the week.  Conditions overall remain favorable for crop development but some extra heat has made its way into the extended forecast outlooks which helped support buying today.  Leading up to next Thursday’s reports, I would expect the objective here is to get our futures mid-range of our most recent significant highs and lows on the charts (somewhere around the 700'0 level on September and December corn, near 1600'0 on August beans and 1480'0 on the November chart).  Weekly export sales were better than expected for old crop corn with 672k tonnes sold.  Old crop beans sales posted 29k tonnes of net sales.  This was a marketing year low for old crop beans and we are at a point in the marketing year where some net cancellations of soybeans on any given week will not be a surprise.  New crop sales were both within trade expectations with 358k tonnes of corn and 265k tonnes soybeans sold last week.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.