6/24/2022

Jun 24, 2022


6/24/2022
A nice recovery into the weekend after trade became quickly oversold earlier in the week.  Conditions overall remain favorable for crop development but some extra heat has made its way into the extended forecast outlooks which helped support buying today.  Leading up to next Thursday’s reports, I would expect the objective here is to get our futures mid-range of our most recent significant highs and lows on the charts (somewhere around the 700'0 level on September and December corn, near 1600'0 on August beans and 1480'0 on the November chart).  Weekly export sales were better than expected for old crop corn with 672k tonnes sold.  Old crop beans sales posted 29k tonnes of net sales.  This was a marketing year low for old crop beans and we are at a point in the marketing year where some net cancellations of soybeans on any given week will not be a surprise.  New crop sales were both within trade expectations with 358k tonnes of corn and 265k tonnes soybeans sold last week.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.