Grain > Commentary > 6-23-2023

6/23/2023

Jun 23, 2023

6/23/2023
Major risk-off to end the week following some big changes in the weekend forecasts and extended weather models showing high probabilities of much needed moisture across the grain belt.  December corn settled well below the $6.00 level and November soybeans managed to hang on above $13.  Weather markets can be extremely volatile and there has been no shortage of volatility over the past week.  The weekly export sales report offered no support and the figures for corn were very poor, coming in at the bottom side of estimates with 36k tonnes sold.  Soybean sales were decent for this week with net sales of 457.5k tonnes.  The report shouldn't be a surprise considering how fast the board priced the U.S. out of the global market starting last week Thursday.  The funds are able to move the market but it doesn't mean the funds are right, real fundamentals still need to be part driver of the market direction.  To date, export sales pace for corn is now 123 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 107 million last week.  Soybean export sales pace is currently 82 million bushels behind the USDA target, improving from an 88-million-bushel deficit last week.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.