Grain > Commentary > 6-23-2023

6/23/2023

Jun 23, 2023

6/23/2023
Major risk-off to end the week following some big changes in the weekend forecasts and extended weather models showing high probabilities of much needed moisture across the grain belt.  December corn settled well below the $6.00 level and November soybeans managed to hang on above $13.  Weather markets can be extremely volatile and there has been no shortage of volatility over the past week.  The weekly export sales report offered no support and the figures for corn were very poor, coming in at the bottom side of estimates with 36k tonnes sold.  Soybean sales were decent for this week with net sales of 457.5k tonnes.  The report shouldn't be a surprise considering how fast the board priced the U.S. out of the global market starting last week Thursday.  The funds are able to move the market but it doesn't mean the funds are right, real fundamentals still need to be part driver of the market direction.  To date, export sales pace for corn is now 123 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 107 million last week.  Soybean export sales pace is currently 82 million bushels behind the USDA target, improving from an 88-million-bushel deficit last week.

outlook.png

Read More News

2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.