6/23/2023

Jun 23, 2023


6/23/2023
Major risk-off to end the week following some big changes in the weekend forecasts and extended weather models showing high probabilities of much needed moisture across the grain belt.  December corn settled well below the $6.00 level and November soybeans managed to hang on above $13.  Weather markets can be extremely volatile and there has been no shortage of volatility over the past week.  The weekly export sales report offered no support and the figures for corn were very poor, coming in at the bottom side of estimates with 36k tonnes sold.  Soybean sales were decent for this week with net sales of 457.5k tonnes.  The report shouldn't be a surprise considering how fast the board priced the U.S. out of the global market starting last week Thursday.  The funds are able to move the market but it doesn't mean the funds are right, real fundamentals still need to be part driver of the market direction.  To date, export sales pace for corn is now 123 million bushels behind the USDA target versus 107 million last week.  Soybean export sales pace is currently 82 million bushels behind the USDA target, improving from an 88-million-bushel deficit last week.

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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.