6/23/2022

Jun 23, 2022


6/23/2022
Another day of hard liquidation.  Corn flirted within a couple cents of limit lower and soybeans were down 30 in the first hour of overnight trade before doubling down and spending most of the day around 60 cents lower.  Spec money which was in deep buying through the spring has turned seller.  July options expire tomorrow and money might be trying to shake out the late buyers to take a portion of the bullish options positions out of the money.  Cash basis has suddenly begun to slide.  End users have been aggressive through May and June and suddenly appear to have good coverage 60-90 days out.  The USDA export wire continues to be silent this week.  With Brazil harvesting a good second crop and their grain values at a discount to the US, any export sales through the summer will be minimal unless weather dictates a need for additional supply.  With the USDA closed on Monday for a federal holiday, we will get our weekly export sales report tomorrow morning.  For those with a July corn basis contract, you have until June 29 to price those or roll them to the September. 

A solid technical bounce off of July’s 100-day moving average.
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.