Grain > Commentary > 6-23-2021

6/23/2021

Jun 23, 2021

6/23/2021
A much more reserved trading range compared to what we have seen over the past month with 15-20 cent ranges in corn and soybeans and both finishing mixed on the day.  Late yesterday there were rumors of China being back in the market for new crop soybeans and those rumors were confirmed true this morning with the USDA's 8am announcement of 330,000 tonnes (12.1 mln bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2021/22 marketing year.  Talk was swirling again today that China was buying more new crop beans and this means exporters are selling beans on the PNW market that may not be there (the Dakotas and Minnesota) given our current conditions.  Weekly ethanol numbers were larger, with output up 23,000 barrels per day to 1.05 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks also increased to 21.12 mln barrels, up 518k barrels from last week.  Weather forecasts showing more rains for eastern Iowa and parts of Illinois over the new few days, along with the presumption of additional corn acres on the June 30th planting report, will likely keep our market in check for now.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.