Grain > Commentary > 6-23-2021

6/23/2021

Jun 23, 2021

6/23/2021
A much more reserved trading range compared to what we have seen over the past month with 15-20 cent ranges in corn and soybeans and both finishing mixed on the day.  Late yesterday there were rumors of China being back in the market for new crop soybeans and those rumors were confirmed true this morning with the USDA's 8am announcement of 330,000 tonnes (12.1 mln bushels) of soybeans to China for the 2021/22 marketing year.  Talk was swirling again today that China was buying more new crop beans and this means exporters are selling beans on the PNW market that may not be there (the Dakotas and Minnesota) given our current conditions.  Weekly ethanol numbers were larger, with output up 23,000 barrels per day to 1.05 mln bpd.  Ethanol stocks also increased to 21.12 mln barrels, up 518k barrels from last week.  Weather forecasts showing more rains for eastern Iowa and parts of Illinois over the new few days, along with the presumption of additional corn acres on the June 30th planting report, will likely keep our market in check for now.

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9/11/2026
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
7/10/2026
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.