6/22/2021

Jun 22, 2021


6/22/2021
Volatility, more volatility, the volatility continues.  Two-sided action in both corn and soybeans all throughout the overnight and through mid-day until updated weather models showed a high possibility of excess rain starting in eastern Iowa and spreading into Illinois.  The weather models also added moisture into the forecast for the balance of the grain belt, minus the Dakotas.  Corn condition rating slipped again this week, with the U.S. crop seen at 65% good/excellent, a 3% cut from last week.  Soybeans in the good/excellent category were also lower this week, declining from 62% to 60% g/e.  Spring wheat was the bright spot on the markets today, up 13-17 cents, as crop conditions are the worst since 1989.  Across the country, corn basis slips a little and soybean basis appears to have steadied going forward.  News/updates on the South American corn crop has been extremely quiet as of late which probably means Brazil and Argentina are harvesting a lot more corn than what we thought they were going to have.  Overall, a quiet news day.  Taking a look on the bright side, there's only 6 more months of these market swings until the USDA tells us what we have for a crop.  

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.