6/22/2021

Jun 22, 2021


6/22/2021
Volatility, more volatility, the volatility continues.  Two-sided action in both corn and soybeans all throughout the overnight and through mid-day until updated weather models showed a high possibility of excess rain starting in eastern Iowa and spreading into Illinois.  The weather models also added moisture into the forecast for the balance of the grain belt, minus the Dakotas.  Corn condition rating slipped again this week, with the U.S. crop seen at 65% good/excellent, a 3% cut from last week.  Soybeans in the good/excellent category were also lower this week, declining from 62% to 60% g/e.  Spring wheat was the bright spot on the markets today, up 13-17 cents, as crop conditions are the worst since 1989.  Across the country, corn basis slips a little and soybean basis appears to have steadied going forward.  News/updates on the South American corn crop has been extremely quiet as of late which probably means Brazil and Argentina are harvesting a lot more corn than what we thought they were going to have.  Overall, a quiet news day.  Taking a look on the bright side, there's only 6 more months of these market swings until the USDA tells us what we have for a crop.  

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.