6/22/2021

Jun 22, 2021


6/22/2021
Volatility, more volatility, the volatility continues.  Two-sided action in both corn and soybeans all throughout the overnight and through mid-day until updated weather models showed a high possibility of excess rain starting in eastern Iowa and spreading into Illinois.  The weather models also added moisture into the forecast for the balance of the grain belt, minus the Dakotas.  Corn condition rating slipped again this week, with the U.S. crop seen at 65% good/excellent, a 3% cut from last week.  Soybeans in the good/excellent category were also lower this week, declining from 62% to 60% g/e.  Spring wheat was the bright spot on the markets today, up 13-17 cents, as crop conditions are the worst since 1989.  Across the country, corn basis slips a little and soybean basis appears to have steadied going forward.  News/updates on the South American corn crop has been extremely quiet as of late which probably means Brazil and Argentina are harvesting a lot more corn than what we thought they were going to have.  Overall, a quiet news day.  Taking a look on the bright side, there's only 6 more months of these market swings until the USDA tells us what we have for a crop.  

Read More News

Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.