6/22/2021

Jun 22, 2021


6/22/2021
Volatility, more volatility, the volatility continues.  Two-sided action in both corn and soybeans all throughout the overnight and through mid-day until updated weather models showed a high possibility of excess rain starting in eastern Iowa and spreading into Illinois.  The weather models also added moisture into the forecast for the balance of the grain belt, minus the Dakotas.  Corn condition rating slipped again this week, with the U.S. crop seen at 65% good/excellent, a 3% cut from last week.  Soybeans in the good/excellent category were also lower this week, declining from 62% to 60% g/e.  Spring wheat was the bright spot on the markets today, up 13-17 cents, as crop conditions are the worst since 1989.  Across the country, corn basis slips a little and soybean basis appears to have steadied going forward.  News/updates on the South American corn crop has been extremely quiet as of late which probably means Brazil and Argentina are harvesting a lot more corn than what we thought they were going to have.  Overall, a quiet news day.  Taking a look on the bright side, there's only 6 more months of these market swings until the USDA tells us what we have for a crop.  

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.