6/21/2023

It was rinse and repeat today for corn and soybeans.  Another day checked off and another big leg higher on the board.  We opened overnight trade higher and never looked back and were still pringting fresh intraday highs going into the close.  A bigger-than-expected drop in crop conditions is what fed the bulls today.  Corn seen as good/excellent was reported at 55% by the USDA, below the trade guess of 58% and down from 61% last week.  Soybean conditions declined 5% from 59% down 54% good/excellent.  The main focus was big declines in Iowa and Illinois.  No one can argue that the crop doesn't need precipitation between now and harvest, it certainly does, but history tells us that there is almost no correlation between June crop ratings and final yield.  Even more recent history has proven to us that timing of the rain is much more important in producing yield than a yearly rainfall total.  Overall, the market is well over-bought at this point and capturing some of this weather premium in the new crop should be done if you have not grabbed any of this rally.