6/21/2022

Last Friday, the market appeared to be rallying into a weekend forecasted for extreme temps and little moisture but fell flat on its face into the close and finished well off of its intraday highs. Trade had an extra day to evaluate their positions with the markets closed yesterday for a federal holiday. While funds and spec money wanted to chase weather headlines, we were confident that some record hot temps would do wonders for the crop and give us a great scenario to market into. Money came in to sell hard at the start of the overnight session and continued to liquidate throughout the day, gapping lower at the open. Fundamentals continue to swing more bearish. Brazil appears to be on the verge of a bumper safrihna corn crop and continues to find more soybean acres of added production for this year. Wheat led everything lower today with Russia and the U.S. finding larger yields than expected, lifting production estimates once more. Our sell order targets we had in place hit last week. Corn targets are again reset at $8 for cash and $7 for new crop. I am lowering my target for cash soybeans to $16.50 with new crop remaining at $15. Overall, the market is still very well supported but we have likely seen the highs for old crop futures. New crop values should remain relatively solid with plenty of weather ahead, yet.

Big gaps lower to start the overnight and trade never made an attempt to fill.

July and december corn gapped back under their 50-day averages and closed below their 20-day averages. 100-day averages lay below at 733’3 and 678’2 and should be a hard line of support.

August beans gapped under their 50-day average, as well, and found support at their 100-day average near 1595’0. November beans gapped under their 20-day and are flirting with trend line support and support of the 50-day average.

With the June acres and stocks reports due out next week, we have another solid opportunity at marketing old crop. Have orders working!