Grain > Commentary > 6-21-2021

6/21/2021

Jun 21, 2021

6/21/2021
The volatility continues and it's only just begun.  We started the overnight markets down 15-20 cents due to weekend rainfall.  The eastern corn belt saw much better rains than in the west.  Minnesota, the Dakota's, and Northern Iowa were the big disappointments.  Iowa has another chance towards the end of the week, but the Dakota's and Minnesota will remain dry.  We saw a couple good bean sale announcements at 8 am today.  336,000 metric ton to China and 120,000 metric ton to Unknown.  That sale was rumored on Friday, so it was not a surprise.  The market however liked to see it confirmed today!  Beans rallied back to finish up 15 on old crop and 6 on new crop bouncing over 40 cents off their lows for the day.  Corn finished the day down 6 on old crop and 9 on new crop, still in red figures but nearly 20 cents off their lows of the day.  These big daily swings are going to continue as this crop is far from made and there remains a number of unknowns.  Weekends just add to the volatility in these situations.     
 

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.