Grain > Commentary > 6-21-2021

6/21/2021

Jun 21, 2021

6/21/2021
The volatility continues and it's only just begun.  We started the overnight markets down 15-20 cents due to weekend rainfall.  The eastern corn belt saw much better rains than in the west.  Minnesota, the Dakota's, and Northern Iowa were the big disappointments.  Iowa has another chance towards the end of the week, but the Dakota's and Minnesota will remain dry.  We saw a couple good bean sale announcements at 8 am today.  336,000 metric ton to China and 120,000 metric ton to Unknown.  That sale was rumored on Friday, so it was not a surprise.  The market however liked to see it confirmed today!  Beans rallied back to finish up 15 on old crop and 6 on new crop bouncing over 40 cents off their lows for the day.  Corn finished the day down 6 on old crop and 9 on new crop, still in red figures but nearly 20 cents off their lows of the day.  These big daily swings are going to continue as this crop is far from made and there remains a number of unknowns.  Weekends just add to the volatility in these situations.     
 

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.