Grain > Commentary > 6-20-2024

6/20/2024

Jun 20, 2024

The mid-week holiday gives the market a second case of the Mondays this week. After some recovery in the previous session, the grain complex just could not find a footing on Thursday. Wheat and soybeans were hit the hardest with double-digit losses on the day. With nothing supportive to lean on, that was the writing on the wall for corn for the day which was trading 10 lower in the final 15 minutes of the session. The sell-off over the past two weeks has taken out a fair amount of the potential downside in next week's acres and quarterly stocks reports. Once we consider the conditions some of this crop was planted in, the potential for prevent plant, and get a better idea on current moisture conditions (dry or saturated), trade may not be able to beat the market down much more going into this report.

Today we saw a yearly low for Nov 24 soybeans and a multi-year low for the November contract month.

Read More News

11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.