Grain > Commentary > 6-20-2023

6/20/2023

Jun 20, 2023

Corn and soybeans gapped higher again at the Monday night open which sent December corn futures to trade within 2 cents of its high for the 2023 calendar year. August soybeans traded out to 15 higher, filling a gap left on the chart from back in April. By sunrise, the market had reeled and we were seeing lower trade in the range of 8-12 cents in the red. We ended the day slightly mixed but mostly higher down the board and it felt like trade was just flipping a coin on deciding what to do as the day progressed. The volatility was alive and well today and we should remain supported around these levels. We are at the point where forecasts cannot be traded solely and rain will need to actually materialize to see fund and spec money sell off. One thing to keep in mind on this rally; the current board prices will not help U.S. export or domestic demand and Brazil has approximately 2/3 of its safrihna crop to sell, yet. The USDA also has some sharpening to do on the 2022/23 crop balance sheet as we near the end of the crop year. This will likely include further cuts to corn demand for ethanol use and exports.

Calendar year-to-date for December corn:
corn-chart.png

Read More News

6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.