6/20/2023

Jun 20, 2023


Corn and soybeans gapped higher again at the Monday night open which sent December corn futures to trade within 2 cents of its high for the 2023 calendar year. August soybeans traded out to 15 higher, filling a gap left on the chart from back in April. By sunrise, the market had reeled and we were seeing lower trade in the range of 8-12 cents in the red. We ended the day slightly mixed but mostly higher down the board and it felt like trade was just flipping a coin on deciding what to do as the day progressed. The volatility was alive and well today and we should remain supported around these levels. We are at the point where forecasts cannot be traded solely and rain will need to actually materialize to see fund and spec money sell off. One thing to keep in mind on this rally; the current board prices will not help U.S. export or domestic demand and Brazil has approximately 2/3 of its safrihna crop to sell, yet. The USDA also has some sharpening to do on the 2022/23 crop balance sheet as we near the end of the crop year. This will likely include further cuts to corn demand for ethanol use and exports.

Calendar year-to-date for December corn:
corn-chart.png

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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.