6/2/2023

Jun 02, 2023


Some nice reversals and a surge of buying across several commodities in the ag sector highlighted trade on Friday and it was largely a "risk-on" day across other market spaces, as well. After trading 11 cents lower, July corn had reversed higher and was challenging to trade through the 600'0 level before noon. Soybeans enjoyed double-digit gains ranging from 12-20 cents. Trade continues to weigh weather risks and is pricing in more premium. The consensus is that the USDA will need to reduce 2023 crop yields next week in the June installment of the WASDE report rather than waiting until the end of the month for the acres and stocks reports. Reminder: the USDA currently has some large trend-line yields plugged into the balance sheets that would be record yields. Weekly net export sales for corn and soybeans continue on their very vanilla pace printing average numbers towards the middle of expectations. Corn sales netted 187k tonnes and soybean sales came in at 123k tonnes. The only miss on the report was wheat coming in low with a net cancellation of 211k tonnes.

July corn completed some nice technical objectives today, giving a potentially bullish look to the chart. It was able to trade through resistance and hold at both the 600'0 level and the 50-day moving average (604'5). It also completed a 62% retracement from the May low to the April high (609'0).
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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.