6/2/2023

Jun 02, 2023


Some nice reversals and a surge of buying across several commodities in the ag sector highlighted trade on Friday and it was largely a "risk-on" day across other market spaces, as well. After trading 11 cents lower, July corn had reversed higher and was challenging to trade through the 600'0 level before noon. Soybeans enjoyed double-digit gains ranging from 12-20 cents. Trade continues to weigh weather risks and is pricing in more premium. The consensus is that the USDA will need to reduce 2023 crop yields next week in the June installment of the WASDE report rather than waiting until the end of the month for the acres and stocks reports. Reminder: the USDA currently has some large trend-line yields plugged into the balance sheets that would be record yields. Weekly net export sales for corn and soybeans continue on their very vanilla pace printing average numbers towards the middle of expectations. Corn sales netted 187k tonnes and soybean sales came in at 123k tonnes. The only miss on the report was wheat coming in low with a net cancellation of 211k tonnes.

July corn completed some nice technical objectives today, giving a potentially bullish look to the chart. It was able to trade through resistance and hold at both the 600'0 level and the 50-day moving average (604'5). It also completed a 62% retracement from the May low to the April high (609'0).
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Oct 09, 2026
USDA Report Update:
Well, the USDA gave us an absolute shocker this morning and raised the corn yield up to 181.2 bpa vs 178.5 in September.  The average trade guess was lower at 177.7 bpa.  The carryout is now up to 1.849 billion bushels vs 1.567 in September.  They raised Exports up 25 million, Feed and residual up 50 million and Ethanol up 50 million.  Corn is currently down 28 cents on this news.  This is an absolute shocker to the corn market. 
Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected.