6/2/2023

Jun 02, 2023


Some nice reversals and a surge of buying across several commodities in the ag sector highlighted trade on Friday and it was largely a "risk-on" day across other market spaces, as well. After trading 11 cents lower, July corn had reversed higher and was challenging to trade through the 600'0 level before noon. Soybeans enjoyed double-digit gains ranging from 12-20 cents. Trade continues to weigh weather risks and is pricing in more premium. The consensus is that the USDA will need to reduce 2023 crop yields next week in the June installment of the WASDE report rather than waiting until the end of the month for the acres and stocks reports. Reminder: the USDA currently has some large trend-line yields plugged into the balance sheets that would be record yields. Weekly net export sales for corn and soybeans continue on their very vanilla pace printing average numbers towards the middle of expectations. Corn sales netted 187k tonnes and soybean sales came in at 123k tonnes. The only miss on the report was wheat coming in low with a net cancellation of 211k tonnes.

July corn completed some nice technical objectives today, giving a potentially bullish look to the chart. It was able to trade through resistance and hold at both the 600'0 level and the 50-day moving average (604'5). It also completed a 62% retracement from the May low to the April high (609'0).
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Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.