6/2/2023

Jun 02, 2023


Some nice reversals and a surge of buying across several commodities in the ag sector highlighted trade on Friday and it was largely a "risk-on" day across other market spaces, as well. After trading 11 cents lower, July corn had reversed higher and was challenging to trade through the 600'0 level before noon. Soybeans enjoyed double-digit gains ranging from 12-20 cents. Trade continues to weigh weather risks and is pricing in more premium. The consensus is that the USDA will need to reduce 2023 crop yields next week in the June installment of the WASDE report rather than waiting until the end of the month for the acres and stocks reports. Reminder: the USDA currently has some large trend-line yields plugged into the balance sheets that would be record yields. Weekly net export sales for corn and soybeans continue on their very vanilla pace printing average numbers towards the middle of expectations. Corn sales netted 187k tonnes and soybean sales came in at 123k tonnes. The only miss on the report was wheat coming in low with a net cancellation of 211k tonnes.

July corn completed some nice technical objectives today, giving a potentially bullish look to the chart. It was able to trade through resistance and hold at both the 600'0 level and the 50-day moving average (604'5). It also completed a 62% retracement from the May low to the April high (609'0).
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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.