6/2/2021

Jun 02, 2021


6/2/2021
After touching limit up on Tuesday, corn trade was two-sided overnight and gave way to profit taking during the day session to finish 13 lower on the day.  Soybeans found good buying support in the forecasted weather showing record heat and little-to-no precipitation over the next 6-10 days.  Apparently, it’s only going to rain on the US corn fields?  This highly volatile, weather market trade can be frustrating, especially considering how often we hear that Brazil's bean crop continues to grow and their second corn crop continues to shrink.  Apparently, it only rained on Brazil's bean fields?  The easy-out for corn's down day was the initial corn crop rating for the year put out by the USDA, which showed a 76% good/excellent rating and only 4% poor/very poor.  Trade was expecting a 70% g/e rating but history shows that the USDA likes to tell us the crop looks good at the beginning of June.  The report also showed that we are 95% planted, 81% emerged on corn; well ahead of the 5-year averages.  Soybeans will have their first condition rating in next week's crop progress report but they were shown as 84% planted, 62% emerged; 17-20% ahead of the 5-year averages.  More estimates for corn acres planted in the June report are adding large numbers of corn acres while keeping bean acres steady.

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Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu.