6/2/2021

Jun 02, 2021


6/2/2021
After touching limit up on Tuesday, corn trade was two-sided overnight and gave way to profit taking during the day session to finish 13 lower on the day.  Soybeans found good buying support in the forecasted weather showing record heat and little-to-no precipitation over the next 6-10 days.  Apparently, it’s only going to rain on the US corn fields?  This highly volatile, weather market trade can be frustrating, especially considering how often we hear that Brazil's bean crop continues to grow and their second corn crop continues to shrink.  Apparently, it only rained on Brazil's bean fields?  The easy-out for corn's down day was the initial corn crop rating for the year put out by the USDA, which showed a 76% good/excellent rating and only 4% poor/very poor.  Trade was expecting a 70% g/e rating but history shows that the USDA likes to tell us the crop looks good at the beginning of June.  The report also showed that we are 95% planted, 81% emerged on corn; well ahead of the 5-year averages.  Soybeans will have their first condition rating in next week's crop progress report but they were shown as 84% planted, 62% emerged; 17-20% ahead of the 5-year averages.  More estimates for corn acres planted in the June report are adding large numbers of corn acres while keeping bean acres steady.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.