Grain > Commentary > 6-16-2023

6/16/2023

Jun 16, 2023

Another big day on the board with funds and spec money following through with more buying and risk-on going into the extended weekend.  The markets will remain closed until Monday night so make sure your seatbelt is pulled tight for Tuesday.  Today's story was much of the same: weather forecasts continue to be bias towards dry, arid weather but around mid-day Friday we did see a shift in the models that favored some milder temps and more moisture.  It really feels like the next 3 days will be very important in determining the direction of our markets.  Next week we will likely see September corn, August soybeans, and November soybeans test resistance at their 200-day moving averages.  December corn is also in position to test resistance at the very important $6.00 level.  This market is so weather dependent right now that any change in the weather forecasts will be felt!

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6/11/2026
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
5/12/2026
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT.