Grain > Commentary > 6-16-2023

6/16/2023

Jun 16, 2023

Another big day on the board with funds and spec money following through with more buying and risk-on going into the extended weekend.  The markets will remain closed until Monday night so make sure your seatbelt is pulled tight for Tuesday.  Today's story was much of the same: weather forecasts continue to be bias towards dry, arid weather but around mid-day Friday we did see a shift in the models that favored some milder temps and more moisture.  It really feels like the next 3 days will be very important in determining the direction of our markets.  Next week we will likely see September corn, August soybeans, and November soybeans test resistance at their 200-day moving averages.  December corn is also in position to test resistance at the very important $6.00 level.  This market is so weather dependent right now that any change in the weather forecasts will be felt!

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2/10/2026
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
1/12/2026
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.