Grain > Commentary > 6-16-2023

6/16/2023

Jun 16, 2023

Another big day on the board with funds and spec money following through with more buying and risk-on going into the extended weekend.  The markets will remain closed until Monday night so make sure your seatbelt is pulled tight for Tuesday.  Today's story was much of the same: weather forecasts continue to be bias towards dry, arid weather but around mid-day Friday we did see a shift in the models that favored some milder temps and more moisture.  It really feels like the next 3 days will be very important in determining the direction of our markets.  Next week we will likely see September corn, August soybeans, and November soybeans test resistance at their 200-day moving averages.  December corn is also in position to test resistance at the very important $6.00 level.  This market is so weather dependent right now that any change in the weather forecasts will be felt!

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.