6/16/2022

Jun 16, 2022


6/16/2022
There is a lot of negativity in the financial markets at the moment as the "recession" is getting thrown around a lot!  Is that money leaving the financial markets and flowing into commodities?  It sure feels that way, which is normal when fear hits the markets.  As I write this the DOW is down 900 points and breaking below 30,000.  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 23% and 34% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, is about 19% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.”   Crude oil is up over 2 bucks today after trading down over 2 bucks earlier in the day.  Things are getting ugly and seem to be getting worse quickly!  The good news today is cash corn is $8 once again.  Selling picked up dramatically today in old crop corn today, but new crop sales were rather light.  Some people want to trade hot and dry weather already, which typically is a bad set up after a wet and cold start to the season.  Basis remains strong in corn as the ethanol demand continues to try and lock up bushels until we get to new crop.  Those of you with basis on the July futures have until the 29th of June to get them priced or rolled.  Also just a reminder there are no markets on Monday as Juneteenth is the new holiday, so we will not buy grain after the close tomorrow. 

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.