6/16/2022

Jun 16, 2022


6/16/2022
There is a lot of negativity in the financial markets at the moment as the "recession" is getting thrown around a lot!  Is that money leaving the financial markets and flowing into commodities?  It sure feels that way, which is normal when fear hits the markets.  As I write this the DOW is down 900 points and breaking below 30,000.  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 23% and 34% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, is about 19% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.”   Crude oil is up over 2 bucks today after trading down over 2 bucks earlier in the day.  Things are getting ugly and seem to be getting worse quickly!  The good news today is cash corn is $8 once again.  Selling picked up dramatically today in old crop corn today, but new crop sales were rather light.  Some people want to trade hot and dry weather already, which typically is a bad set up after a wet and cold start to the season.  Basis remains strong in corn as the ethanol demand continues to try and lock up bushels until we get to new crop.  Those of you with basis on the July futures have until the 29th of June to get them priced or rolled.  Also just a reminder there are no markets on Monday as Juneteenth is the new holiday, so we will not buy grain after the close tomorrow. 

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Sep 11, 2026
It is USDA report day and it seemed like one of the most important reports we have had in a while.  The USDA placed corn yield at 178.5 bpa vs an average guess of 178.2.  They were in line with expectations and admitting we have an issue brewing.  This likely won’t be our lowest yield we see, but it at least drew a line in the sand for a starting point. 
Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report.