6/16/2022

Jun 16, 2022


6/16/2022
There is a lot of negativity in the financial markets at the moment as the "recession" is getting thrown around a lot!  Is that money leaving the financial markets and flowing into commodities?  It sure feels that way, which is normal when fear hits the markets.  As I write this the DOW is down 900 points and breaking below 30,000.  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both in bear market territory, down roughly 23% and 34% from their all-time highs in January and November, respectively. The Dow, meanwhile, is about 19% below its Jan. 5 all-time intraday high.”   Crude oil is up over 2 bucks today after trading down over 2 bucks earlier in the day.  Things are getting ugly and seem to be getting worse quickly!  The good news today is cash corn is $8 once again.  Selling picked up dramatically today in old crop corn today, but new crop sales were rather light.  Some people want to trade hot and dry weather already, which typically is a bad set up after a wet and cold start to the season.  Basis remains strong in corn as the ethanol demand continues to try and lock up bushels until we get to new crop.  Those of you with basis on the July futures have until the 29th of June to get them priced or rolled.  Also just a reminder there are no markets on Monday as Juneteenth is the new holiday, so we will not buy grain after the close tomorrow. 

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Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.