6/16/2021

Jun 16, 2021


6/16/2021
It's incredible to watch the flow and price action in this trade.  Simply set your alarm for the times updated weather models are released, switch the market screen to the minute chart, and take it in.  Corn and soybeans were both initially higher overnight as a reaction to one weather model taking some moisture out of the extended forecasts.  Beans faded off their overnight highs and continued to weaken over the course of the day, with the remaining old crop bean contracts closing below the 100-day moving average for the first time in over 10 months.  Corn spent a majority of the morning in the green, with cash corn trading up to 15 higher in the first 30 minutes of the day session.  Fast forward to 11:30, updated weather models were released, maintaining their cooler/wet bias, even adding some additional moisture.  That's all it took to cut away the gains on corn and send it 1-3 lower on the day.  With corn and soybean ending stocks tightening over the past year, we expected any type of market moving information would have an amplified effect.  We had our first daily export sale flash since May 27 with the USDA reporting the sale of 153,416 tonnes (just over 6 million bu) of corn for delivery to unknown in 2021/22.  We are keeping our fingers, toes, arms, feet, legs, and hands crossed hoping that the weatherman is right, for once.

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Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.
Mar 31, 2025
USDA reported corn planting acres at 95.326 million acres of corn, which would be up a little more than 5% from 2024's final number and the second highest March figure of the last ten years behind only 2020's estimate of 96.99 mil acres.  US corn stocks as of March 1st were seen at 81.51 billion bushels, which was exactly what the trade had expected and was down just over 2% from March 1 of 2024.  USDA said farmers intended to plant 83.495 million acres of soybeans, which would be down about 4% from last year and was just a hair smaller than what the trade was looking for.  March 1 soybean stocks were pegged at 1.91 billion bu's, which again was nearly exactly as the trade had expected, and was up 3.5% compared to March 1, 2024.