6/16/2021

It's incredible to watch the flow and price action in this trade.  Simply set your alarm for the times updated weather models are released, switch the market screen to the minute chart, and take it in.  Corn and soybeans were both initially higher overnight as a reaction to one weather model taking some moisture out of the extended forecasts.  Beans faded off their overnight highs and continued to weaken over the course of the day, with the remaining old crop bean contracts closing below the 100-day moving average for the first time in over 10 months.  Corn spent a majority of the morning in the green, with cash corn trading up to 15 higher in the first 30 minutes of the day session.  Fast forward to 11:30, updated weather models were released, maintaining their cooler/wet bias, even adding some additional moisture.  That's all it took to cut away the gains on corn and send it 1-3 lower on the day.  With corn and soybean ending stocks tightening over the past year, we expected any type of market moving information would have an amplified effect.  We had our first daily export sale flash since May 27 with the USDA reporting the sale of 153,416 tonnes (just over 6 million bu) of corn for delivery to unknown in 2021/22.  We are keeping our fingers, toes, arms, feet, legs, and hands crossed hoping that the weatherman is right, for once.