Grain > Commentary > 6-15-2023

6/15/2023

Jun 15, 2023

Some bullish technical set-ups on the charts and some missed rains were all that was needed for money to come flying into the grains today and it appears the funds dove in head-first.  We ended Thursday with some monster gains just under the highs that included 52 cents higher on November beans and 25 cents higher on December corn.  The hot topic in the market is how we are correlating with 2012 and 2013 but the big difference in 2023 is demand!  Bull markets are fun and it is enjoyable to watch corn rally 25 cents in a day but this does not help demand down the road.  This will only price the U.S. further out of global markets and put basis even harder on the defensive.  It's no secret that the market this week has opened up the grain bins and moved a lot of bushels and there's just not the demand needed to absorb this big influx of cash grain on the market.  Weekly export sales were mid-range for corn with 273k tonnes sold and on the upper end for soybeans with 478k tonnes sold.  NOPA crush for May was a record for the month with 177.915 mbu of soybeans crushed, well above the trade guess of 175.88 mbu.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.