6/15/2023

Jun 15, 2023


Some bullish technical set-ups on the charts and some missed rains were all that was needed for money to come flying into the grains today and it appears the funds dove in head-first.  We ended Thursday with some monster gains just under the highs that included 52 cents higher on November beans and 25 cents higher on December corn.  The hot topic in the market is how we are correlating with 2012 and 2013 but the big difference in 2023 is demand!  Bull markets are fun and it is enjoyable to watch corn rally 25 cents in a day but this does not help demand down the road.  This will only price the U.S. further out of global markets and put basis even harder on the defensive.  It's no secret that the market this week has opened up the grain bins and moved a lot of bushels and there's just not the demand needed to absorb this big influx of cash grain on the market.  Weekly export sales were mid-range for corn with 273k tonnes sold and on the upper end for soybeans with 478k tonnes sold.  NOPA crush for May was a record for the month with 177.915 mbu of soybeans crushed, well above the trade guess of 175.88 mbu.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.