6/15/2021

Jun 15, 2021


6/15/2021
Yesterday's selling continued into the overnight market open and throughout most of day session until some updated weather models pulled some of the moisture out of the forecast, lifting corn 10 cents, and beans 5 cents, off their daily lows but still finishing well in the red for a third consecutive day.  Trade seemed to ignore yesterday's updated crop conditions declined more than expected, with corn now seen as 68% good/excellent (69% estimated, -4% from last week) and soybeans at 62% g/e (65% estimated, -5% from last week).  Spring wheat conditions continue to tumble with only 37% of the crop rated good/excellent and only 29% of North Dakota's spring wheat in the g/e category.  Wheat has some extremely conflicting fundamentals, with the US spring wheat crop considered to be in danger and the market unresponsive due to a generally large world wheat supply and winter wheat harvest progression.  NOPA soybean crush figures for May were released this morning and bushels crushed in May were 163.5 mln, below the trade estimate of 165.1 mln bu.  This was also down 2.6% from May of 2020.  The farmer selling has been quiet lately as everyone seems to be waiting on rain before going forward with any new sales.

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Jul 10, 2026
USDA report day was slightly friendly to the grain markets.
Corn:
25/26 corn carryout was pegged at 2.020 billion bushels vs an average guess of 2.073 billion.  The main changes to this year’s balance sheet had feed and residual usage up 150 million bushels while they decreased ethanol by 25 million bushels.  Corn Yield for next year was estimated at 183 bushel per acre, which was about as expected. 
Jun 11, 2026
The USDA report was noneventful and now we wait for the stocks and acres report on June 30th.  25/26 corn carryout was estimated at 2.145 billion vs an average guess of 2.138 billion.  26/27 corn carryout was estimated at 1.960 billion vs an average guess of 1.947 billion. 26/27 World corn carryout was estimated at 281.22 Million Tonnes vs an average guess of 278.51.  That is up 4 Million Tonnes from the May USDA report. 
May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.