6/15/2021

Jun 15, 2021


6/15/2021
Yesterday's selling continued into the overnight market open and throughout most of day session until some updated weather models pulled some of the moisture out of the forecast, lifting corn 10 cents, and beans 5 cents, off their daily lows but still finishing well in the red for a third consecutive day.  Trade seemed to ignore yesterday's updated crop conditions declined more than expected, with corn now seen as 68% good/excellent (69% estimated, -4% from last week) and soybeans at 62% g/e (65% estimated, -5% from last week).  Spring wheat conditions continue to tumble with only 37% of the crop rated good/excellent and only 29% of North Dakota's spring wheat in the g/e category.  Wheat has some extremely conflicting fundamentals, with the US spring wheat crop considered to be in danger and the market unresponsive due to a generally large world wheat supply and winter wheat harvest progression.  NOPA soybean crush figures for May were released this morning and bushels crushed in May were 163.5 mln, below the trade estimate of 165.1 mln bu.  This was also down 2.6% from May of 2020.  The farmer selling has been quiet lately as everyone seems to be waiting on rain before going forward with any new sales.

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May 12, 2026
Today was USDA report day.  Old crop corn carryout was pegged at 2.142 billion vs the average trade guess of 2.131 billion.  That is a 15 million bushel increase from the April report.  New crop 26/27 corn carryout was guessed at 1.957 billion vs an average trade guess of 1.933 billion.  The World old crop corn carryout was put at 296.95 million tonnes, vs an average trade guess of 296.33.
Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.