6/15/2021

Jun 15, 2021


6/15/2021
Yesterday's selling continued into the overnight market open and throughout most of day session until some updated weather models pulled some of the moisture out of the forecast, lifting corn 10 cents, and beans 5 cents, off their daily lows but still finishing well in the red for a third consecutive day.  Trade seemed to ignore yesterday's updated crop conditions declined more than expected, with corn now seen as 68% good/excellent (69% estimated, -4% from last week) and soybeans at 62% g/e (65% estimated, -5% from last week).  Spring wheat conditions continue to tumble with only 37% of the crop rated good/excellent and only 29% of North Dakota's spring wheat in the g/e category.  Wheat has some extremely conflicting fundamentals, with the US spring wheat crop considered to be in danger and the market unresponsive due to a generally large world wheat supply and winter wheat harvest progression.  NOPA soybean crush figures for May were released this morning and bushels crushed in May were 163.5 mln, below the trade estimate of 165.1 mln bu.  This was also down 2.6% from May of 2020.  The farmer selling has been quiet lately as everyone seems to be waiting on rain before going forward with any new sales.

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Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time. 
Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off.