Grain > Commentary > 6-14-2023

6/14/2023

Jun 14, 2023

Lower to begin overnight trade turned into mixed, two-sided trade through the day.  Corn and soybean price action was much more reserved and traded tight ranges relative to what we have seen earlier this week.  With the markets now just a couple days away from another 3-day weekend, today already looked a little like holiday type trade and it will be interesting to see how funds handle the lighter volume during the back half of the week.  There was no big news or headlines to trade today and the only fresh information was the weekly ethanol report.  Ethanol production dipped 18k barrels/day down to 1.018 mln bpd.  Stocks also declined by 700k barrels to 22.2 million bbls.  Weather will continue to be the biggest driver in the market over the seven days or so but trade will begin positioning for the quarterly grain stocks and acres reports by the end of next week.  Cash corn basis continues to weaken daily and every day that passes from now through the summer will likely mean lost opportunity on that side of the price equation.

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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.