6/14/2023

Jun 14, 2023


Lower to begin overnight trade turned into mixed, two-sided trade through the day.  Corn and soybean price action was much more reserved and traded tight ranges relative to what we have seen earlier this week.  With the markets now just a couple days away from another 3-day weekend, today already looked a little like holiday type trade and it will be interesting to see how funds handle the lighter volume during the back half of the week.  There was no big news or headlines to trade today and the only fresh information was the weekly ethanol report.  Ethanol production dipped 18k barrels/day down to 1.018 mln bpd.  Stocks also declined by 700k barrels to 22.2 million bbls.  Weather will continue to be the biggest driver in the market over the seven days or so but trade will begin positioning for the quarterly grain stocks and acres reports by the end of next week.  Cash corn basis continues to weaken daily and every day that passes from now through the summer will likely mean lost opportunity on that side of the price equation.

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Aug 15, 2025
Corn and beans both had nice gains heading into the weekend.  Corn might seem terrible as of late, but for corn to only be down 2 cents since report day is impressive.  That was one of the most bearish reports for corn we have seen in quite some time.  Corn finished the week 13 cents off its lows and unchanged for the week.  New crop corn basis has softened a little on the week as the extra 2 million acres and 8 bushels of yield from the report has also scared a few exporters off. 
Aug 12, 2025
The USDA report today didn't treat the corn market very well.  Both corn acres and yield were higher the result has corn carryout over 2.1 billion bushels.  Corn yield was pegged at 188.8 bpa vs an estimate of 184.29 bpa.  How high is 188.8?  Well…the previous record was 179.3.  Planted corn acres were put at 97.3 million.  Total corn production is estimated at 16.742 billion bushels, which is 763 million more than the report estimates.
May 12, 2025
News broke Sunday that the USA and China have agreed to ease tensions and lower tariffs.  The US is lowering tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%.  China is lowering their import tariffs from 125% to 10%.  Talks will resume in the coming weeks.  This news had stocks, grains and oil higher overnight. Then of course we had a USDA grain report come out at 11:00 this morning.  That was also a bit friendly.