6/14/2023

Jun 14, 2023


Lower to begin overnight trade turned into mixed, two-sided trade through the day.  Corn and soybean price action was much more reserved and traded tight ranges relative to what we have seen earlier this week.  With the markets now just a couple days away from another 3-day weekend, today already looked a little like holiday type trade and it will be interesting to see how funds handle the lighter volume during the back half of the week.  There was no big news or headlines to trade today and the only fresh information was the weekly ethanol report.  Ethanol production dipped 18k barrels/day down to 1.018 mln bpd.  Stocks also declined by 700k barrels to 22.2 million bbls.  Weather will continue to be the biggest driver in the market over the seven days or so but trade will begin positioning for the quarterly grain stocks and acres reports by the end of next week.  Cash corn basis continues to weaken daily and every day that passes from now through the summer will likely mean lost opportunity on that side of the price equation.

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Feb 10, 2026
It was USDA report day today and it turned out to be a yawner.  The markets never really reacted to the report, and the grains finished the day about where they started with corn unchanged and beans up 12 on the day.  US corn carryout was pegged at 2.127 billion bushels vs the average trade guess of 2.227 billion.  World corn carryout was placed at 288.98 MMT vs the average trade guess of 290.48 MMT. 
Jan 12, 2026
Well, the USDA report had a bit of a surprise today and not in a good way.  Not only did they increase the 2025 corn yield, from 186.0 to 186.5, they also increased Harvest Acres from 90 million to 91.3 million.  That raised the total corn production to 17.021 billion, up an additional 269 million bushels from their previous estimate.  U.S. Ending Stocks are now estimated at 2.227 bbu, vs. 2.209 in Dec.  Report trade guesses were at 1.97 bbu.
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected.