Jun 13, 2024

Decent bounce in corn and soybeans on Thursday. With the USDA not offering much in yesterday's WASDE, the market turns back to a money flow game. Weather outlooks showing potential for some above normal temperatures through end of June is enough for managed money and spec funds to shed some short position. It should also be noted that these same outlooks also show the same chance of above average precipitation but the market is not paying attention to that. The combination of above average temperatures and precipitation is not bullish, in my opinion. Plants seem to grow pretty well in a greenhouse. We had another export sale announcement this morning, this time the USDA confirmed 120,000 tonnes of old crop soybeans to unknown. Weekly net export sales: old crop corn 1.056 mln tonnes, old crop beans 377k tonnes, new crop corn 70k tonnes and new crop beans at 3k tonnes. New crop export sales continue their slow pace.

Solid move higher in corn today. Old crop sell out target hit this morning at 460 futures following the head and shoulder pattern on the July chart. There may be a bit more left in this move but the downside for old crop is too big now. We are looking for the same set up in December corn. We traded through the 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages and are just 4 cents shy from potentially setting a right shoulder on the chart. Current new crop target is using 480 futures for a cash sale or HTA. If we break to the high side, we will be looking at another target near the 500 area.

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