6/13/2023

After a strong opening overnight, the corn trade set some nice 2-month highs early in the session. Soybeans put together a very big day, trading up to 42 cents higher on the day and setting their highest marks since late May. We ended the day well off of highs with corn able to sneak out at 1-2 cents higher but soybeans still look strong with a 25-30 cent improvement today. Today’s pull-back in corn is healthy and needed if we want maintain this rally, the short-term vertical move was not sustainable. Today's strength in the soybean trade is truly unexplainable but needs to be rewarded if you have some old crop left to sell. Weather forecasts and a small drop in crop conditions does not justify a one-day move of this size. Today's move in soy following up yesterday's weaker price action makes it even more peculiar. The good/excellent crop rating declined slightly more than trade expected in yesterday's weekly crop progress from the USDA. Corn was seen at 61% g/e (62% trade, 64% week ago, 72% year ago). Soybeans were rated at 59% g/e (60% trade, 62% week ago, 70% year ago).

With fundamentals lacking, finding technical points to trade has been important. One spot we’ve been watching is the 100-day moving average in December corn, which closed near 556’0 today. If trade can manage a daily close above that level, we could see this rally progress into the 575-580 area. Fail to take out this resistance, and we likely go test support at the fresh downside gap from the Sunday open at 533’0.