Grain > Commentary > 6-13-2023

6/13/2023

Jun 13, 2023

After a strong opening overnight, the corn trade set some nice 2-month highs early in the session. Soybeans put together a very big day, trading up to 42 cents higher on the day and setting their highest marks since late May. We ended the day well off of highs with corn able to sneak out at 1-2 cents higher but soybeans still look strong with a 25-30 cent improvement today. Today’s pull-back in corn is healthy and needed if we want maintain this rally, the short-term vertical move was not sustainable. Today's strength in the soybean trade is truly unexplainable but needs to be rewarded if you have some old crop left to sell. Weather forecasts and a small drop in crop conditions does not justify a one-day move of this size. Today's move in soy following up yesterday's weaker price action makes it even more peculiar. The good/excellent crop rating declined slightly more than trade expected in yesterday's weekly crop progress from the USDA. Corn was seen at 61% g/e (62% trade, 64% week ago, 72% year ago). Soybeans were rated at 59% g/e (60% trade, 62% week ago, 70% year ago).

With fundamentals lacking, finding technical points to trade has been important. One spot we’ve been watching is the 100-day moving average in December corn, which closed near 556’0 today. If trade can manage a daily close above that level, we could see this rally progress into the 575-580 area. Fail to take out this resistance, and we likely go test support at the fresh downside gap from the Sunday open at 533’0.
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11/14/2025
Nov 14, 2025
It was USDA report day today and overall, it was bearish for both corn and beans.  Corn Yield was only reduced by .7 bpa down to 186 bpa.  The market was expecting closer to 184 bpa.  Corn production is estimated at 16.752 billion vs 16.814 billion in September.  They raised exports 100 million, which is debatable, but possible.  Ending stocks on corn were estimated at 2.154 billion bushels, which is up 44 million from September and about 29 million more than the market expected. 
9/12/2025
Sep 12, 2025
USDA report day.  Corn and beans were trading higher pre-report on thoughts of a reduction to yields.  Well....we got what we were thinking but the USDA decided to throw a twist into the mix.  The 25/26 corn yield decreased slightly less than expected by 2.1 bu to 186.7 bpa, but they gave us the largest planted acreage shift on this report in at least the last 20 years (+1.4 mil acres) spurred an increase in production to 16,814 mbu.  25/26 ending stocks were slightly lowered by 7 mbu to 2,110 mbu. 
8/21/2025
Aug 21, 2025
Today the market ran higher on rumors for positive SRE announcements coming soon.  Bean oil was up over $2.  Beans finished the day up 20 cents at 10.56 Nov futures.  There is a chance we could make a run at the 10.74 Nov highs from back in June.  If we get there, I am a seller.  Bean basis remains in the garbage, so a run higher in futures doesn't help that either.  We still don't have a trade deal, so I think any rally is short lived at this time.