6/12/2023

A surge of buying sent corn and soybeans rolling with 2023/24 crop contracts opening with a gap higher on Sunday night. Soybeans reversed overnight to fill their respective gaps ending the day lower on the July and August while taking home modest gains of 3-8 cents from Sept 23 and further out. Corn futures continued higher to the mid-day point of Monday. Weather fueled the market early in the session but the bigger part of the story is poor demand, the prospect of the U.S. supply growing over a 2 billion bushel, and record Brazil production is going to keep pressure on our markets. The key going forward through summer is to sell into strength. Trade expects the USDA to trim the good/excellent ratings in corn and soybeans by 2 percentage points later this afternoon. Weekly export inspections were average for the week for corn at 1.169 mln tonnes of shipments. Soybeans missed low at 140k tonnes shipped. Shipment pace for corn is 73 million bushels behind the USDA target, improving from 80 million bushels behind last week. Soybean shipments exceed the pace needed to meet their target by 47 million bushels, down from 55 million last week.

Today was the third major occurrence of July 23 corn attempting to trade through and hold above its 100-day moving average and failing. Our short-term trends reversed here both in February and April.